Bitcoin Underperformance Precedes ‘Insane Altcoin Rally,’ Expert Warns Of Repeat

According to market expert Jamie Coutts, after an extended period of consolidation and lackluster performance by the two largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), the market may be poised for a resurgence. Coutts believes the ingredients are in place for a broad altcoin rally, following in the footsteps of the “insane” bull run of 2020-2021.

The key catalyst, Coutts says, is the influx of global liquidity that is starting to accelerate. He notes that Bitcoin lags behind the upward movement in the broader M2 money supply, a crucial indicator of market trends. Coutts explained that the ingredients and progression for a broad altcoin rally are normally in place. 

Coutts’ analysis also highlights the underperformance of Ethereum (ETH) relative to Bitcoin, with the ETH/BTC ratio continuing to “bleed out” after a brief bullish signal in June. However, he believes this presents an opportunity, as ETH is likely oversold based on its historical performance against BTC.

While the crypto market landscape remains choppy, with Bitcoin consolidating and altcoins testing the upper end of their downtrend channels, Coutts believes the pieces are falling into place for a renewed surge. 

The market expert emphasizes that the “Crypto Top 40 Advance/Decline Line (ADL)” needs to start leading price action and flip positive to signal a true market turnaround.

Reflecting on recent market events, Coutts highlights a notable oversold reading during the Yen carry unwind event, signaling significant assets hitting 6-month lows. The percentage of assets above their 200-day moving average (MA) remains at a modest 25%, indicating a general sense of ambivalence in the market.

Regarding performance, only 13% of the top assets are outperforming Bitcoin, suggesting a phase where selective high-quality assets are poised to bottom out and excel once the bull market resumes. Coutts mentions specific coins like TRON and TON, which have demonstrated adoption amidst market pullbacks.

Coutts maintained that the ingredients and progression for a broad altcoin rally are starting to come together. These include the assets being “extremely oversold, unloved and under-owned,” global liquidity turning higher in a “meaningful way,” and bitcoin generating “outsized returns” that allow weak holders to recycle profits into altcoins.

Reinforcing Coutts’ bullish stance, Julio Moreno, head of research at data analytics firm CryptoQuant, pointed to the stablecoin market capitalization reaching a fresh record high above $165 billion. Moreno argues that this “implies higher liquidity in the crypto markets” – a key ingredient for the next crypto bull run.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $60,830, up over 3% in the 24-hour time frame. Further consolidation above this level will be key for Bitcoin’s recovery in the coming days.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com