Cardano Could Plunge 80% More As ‘Most Useless Network,’ Analyst Claims

Cardano is facing a fresh round of criticism after renowned crypto market analyst Ali Martinez, known on X as Ali Charts, argued that the network’s valuation remains badly out of step with actual usage. His thesis is blunt: unless adoption improves materially, ADA’s price could face far more downside if a key support level breaks.

In a post titled “The Most Useless Network in the Crypto Market,” Martinez framed Cardano as a chain with a large market value but comparatively weak onchain traction. He wrote, “Cardano ranks among the largest cryptocurrencies by market value, yet the level of real activity on the network remains relatively small.”

He then tied that directly to DeFi participation, arguing that “the amount of capital locked in Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem has never exceeded $1 billion, and it has historically been only a fraction of what is locked on competing platforms like Ethereum. Even some newer chains, such as SUI, have already surpassed it in usage.”

That gap between valuation and network activity sits at the center of his bearish case. Martinez argued that when “a network is valued in the billions but only a limited amount of capital and applications are actually using it, the price may be driven more by speculation than by real demand.” In his view, Cardano has yet to establish the kind of durable product-market fit that tends to sustain long-term capital inflows in crypto.

He sharpened that comparison by placing Cardano alongside two ecosystems that, in his telling, already carved out clearer roles in the market. “Unlike Ethereum, which has built a dominant position in DeFi, or Solana, which has captured high-speed consumer applications, Cardano still lacks a clear use case that consistently attracts users, developers, and investors,” he wrote. The point was not simply that Cardano is smaller than those chains, but that it still has not locked in a sector where it is the default destination for activity.

Martinez also pointed to Cardano’s development model as a structural constraint. “Another concern for me is the pace of development and the increasingly competitive environment,” he said. “Cardano follows a research-driven model that prioritizes academic review and formal verification. While that approach can improve security and design quality, it has also resulted in a slower rollout of features compared to other blockchains.”

That slower cadence, he suggested, has had compounding effects. “Although Cardano launched in 2017, smart contracts were not introduced until 2021, giving competing ecosystems several years to build stronger network effects with more developers, applications, and liquidity.” In crypto, where network effects can become self-reinforcing, arriving late to key product layers can matter as much as technical design.

The market implication of that thesis comes down to one chart level. Martinez said $0.245 is the critical support to watch. If that floor breaks decisively, he sees scope for a move to $0.112 or even $0.051, which would imply another 50% to 80% decline from that zone.

He stopped short of calling the breakdown a certainty, noting that it “has not yet occurred,” but said traders waiting on the sidelines could still see a short setup if the level fails, provided risk is tightly managed.

At press time, ADA traded at $0.2668.