Cardano Price Misses Fireworks On Its Birthday, How Far Will ADA Fall?

The Cardano price has followed the general sentiment across the market and traded to the downside over the past week. The cryptocurrency lost its spot as one of the valuables in the crypto top 10 by market capitalization and could be poised to see further losses.

At the time of writing, the Cardano price trades at $0.43 with a 6% loss and 2% loss over the last 24 hours and 7 days, respectively. As ADA trades to the downside, some major cryptocurrencies have been able to score profits and are showing strength against the general market sentiment.

The Cardano price weakness is more evident as the cryptocurrency failed to react to recent events that were prompting bullish expectations for market participants. First, is the Ethereum “Merge”, the event that completed its transition to Proof-of-Stake (PoS).

“The Merge” failed to provide bullish momentum for PoS cryptocurrencies, such as Cardano. In step, Proof-of-Work (PoW), such as Ravencoin (RVN) and Ethereum Classic (ETC), benefited from the anticipated post-Merge rally.

In addition, the Cardano network was preparing to deploy a major update on its mainnet via a Hard Fork Combinator (HFC) event called “Vasil”. One of its most important milestones since the implementation of smart contract capabilities with HFC “Alonzo”, the recent upgrade was overlooked by market participants.

Across social media, the Cardano community celebrated the network’s fifth birthday. Its inventor Charles Hoskinson posted a celebration video via Twitter, but again this event failed to provide bullish momentum for ADA’s price action. Hoskinson said the following on the network’s growth since its inception:

There are over 3,228 smart contracts to our knowledge that have been deployed on Cardano, and as of September 15, 2022, 50 million transactions. Where we regularly are in the top three to top five of transaction volume on a daily basis and usually are number one for GitHub commits (…)

The Cardano price has been stuck in its current levels forming a channel with a bottom at $0.43 and a top at $0.51. This channel was created in late August, and if bulls can defend these levels, ADA’s price might enjoy a late birthday rally and aim for $0.51 or beyond if the momentum allows it.

However, with the crypto market showing weakness and with current macro conditions proving unfavorable for risk-on assets, ADA might break out of this channel and trend lower. In order to prevent this scenario, the Cardano price must stay above $0.41.

Data from Material Indicators shows that investors with selling orders of $1,000 to $10,000 have been dumping ADA over the past weeks. In addition, the Cardano price has seen low buying pressure from other investors. This status quo must change to support the price and aim for $0.51.