Dogecoin Market Cap Tests Multi-Year Ceiling, Long-Term Momentum Still Intact

Dogecoin’s higher-time-frame structure is starting to look constructive again. In a technical analysis posted on X, crypto analyst EtherNasyonaL noted that Dogecoin’s market cap has completed a build, and momentum is ready, pointing to a cup-and-handle breakout retest breakout on the monthly market-cap chart.

The chart he shared shows Dogecoin’s market cap hovering just under $30 billion, riding above its 25-month moving average with a gentle series of higher lows that has been developing since the 2022 bear market base.

The chart shared by EtherNasyonaL looks at a cup-and-handle structure that has been developing on Dogecoin’s market cap chart for several years. The cup portion stretches across 2022 and 2023, a long and gradual recovery phase following Dogecoin’s blow-off peak in the 2021 bull market.

The handle is a narrowing consolidation under a descending resistance trendline that capped every attempt at recovery throughout the 2022/2023 bear market. Eventually, that resistance line was broken with a clean upward move in late 2024, confirming the first official breakout from the multi-year downtrend.

However, what makes this setup interesting is the successful retest of that same resistance line, now turned into support, where price action briefly dipped before bouncing again. This retest occurred mid-October, when the Dogecoin crashed to $0.15 very briefly.

The retest confirmed the breakout’s legitimacy, showing that Dogecoin traders defended the new support zone rather than allowing another breakdown. This kind of retest is known in technical analysis to lead to large directional moves, especially on higher timeframes where fewer false signals occur. EtherNasyonaL’s chart implies that Dogecoin has completed its build phase that lays the foundation for the next upward leg in its market cap.

Dogecoin Market Cap. Source: @EtherNasyonaL on X

Another important element of EtherNasyonaL’s analysis lies in the consistent pattern of higher lows visible on the chart. Dogecoin’s market cap has formed a rising base since mid-2023, where each correction has ended above the previous one. 

Equally important is the 25-month moving average (MA25) that runs beneath the candles. This indicator has acted as a dynamic support level for much of Dogecoin’s higher-time-frame structure. EtherNasyonaL noted this indicator’s role as the trend backbone by pointing out that this support has “continued to hold the price.” 

As it stands, Dogecoin is now trading well above this moving average. As long as the market cap remains above it, Dogecoin’s structure will continue to maintain its bullish integrity. Should momentum continue to build as the MACD line turns upward, as the chart suggests, the conditions could align for Dogecoin’s next expansion phase. The next expansion phase could take Dogecoin’s market cap above $100 billion, as projected in the chart above. 

At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.20, with a market cap of $29.82 billion.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView