XRP ETF Approval Odds Surge to 81% on Polymarket Amid SEC Filings

This increase follows the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) acknowledgment of multiple XRP ETF applications, including those from Grayscale and 21Shares. The heightened probability reflects a shifting regulatory environment and growing institutional interest in XRP-based investment products.

Polymarket’s XRP ETF approval odds in 2025 have increased from 70% in January to 81% following the SEC’s acknowledgment of Grayscale’s filing. The mood has shifted significantly in favor of approval, with bets nearly evenly split when limiting the time horizon to July 31, 2025.

XRP ETF approval odds for 2025 have soared to 81%. Source: Polymarket

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart previously expressed skepticism, stating an XRP ETF would not be approved until Ripple’s legal battles with the SEC are settled in their entirety. However, new regulatory developments and the SEC’s openness to approving several XRP ETF proposals could change things.

The SEC’s decision to acknowledge the filings is seen as a procedural step, but one that has historically signaled potential movement toward approval. Under Section 19(b)(2) of the Securities Exchange Act, the SEC has up to 240 days to either approve or reject these ETF applications. The crypto community is watching closely, as recent approvals for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs suggest an evolving regulatory stance.

SEC begins reviewing Grayscale and 21Shares XRP ETF applications. Source: ALVREXZ THNY via X

Jeremy Hogan, partner at Hogan & Hogan, believes that while initial approval could come swiftly, a fully tradable XRP ETF may take longer. “Yes, the approval can happen that fast, but then the S-1 has to be approved, etc. So, think of it more like 8-12 months,” he explained.

XRP’s price has responded positively to the news, surging over 10% in the past two days. The cryptocurrency broke past its $2.50 resistance level, reaching a high of $2.78. Market analysts suggest that a successful breakout above $3.40 could trigger a more significant rally.

The XRP price is at around $2.73, up 6.76% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: XRP Liquid Index (XRPLX) via Brave New Coin

According to crypto strategist EGRAG Crypto, XRP’s price movement remains within a bullish structure. He identified key resistance levels at $2.62, $2.75, $2.94, and $3.22, with $3.40 being a crucial milestone. “A sustained close above $3.40 would mark the first time XRP has reached a new all-time high in over seven years,” he noted.

Despite the growing enthusiasm, Weiss Crypto, a financial rating agency, has issued a cautionary note on XRP’s long-term viability. The firm argues that regulatory shifts alone do not necessarily create a strong use case for the asset.

Weiss Crypto has raised concerns about XRP’s long-term sustainability. Weiss Crypto via X

Meanwhile, Ryan Selkis, founder of Messari, suggested that stablecoins have already won the race for mainstream crypto adoption. “Stablecoins won. The legislation will soon codify that victory in the U.S. XRP is drawing dead, as stablecoins grew two orders of magnitude during the SEC battles,” he remarked. However, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz countered that utility will be the key differentiator in the evolving crypto landscape.

With multiple XRP ETF applications under review and increasing confidence in approval, XRP’s market performance and investor sentiment remain strong. The SEC’s decisions in the coming months will be crucial in determining whether XRP follows Bitcoin and Ethereum in securing a spot ETF. If approval is granted, XRP could see increased institutional adoption and a potential price surge beyond its current resistance levels.