XRP ETF Inflows Have Collapsed 79% Since May as the CLARITY Act Stalls, Is $1 About to Break?

In the latest XRP News, Ripple XRP traded near $1.03 after a 1.24% 24-hour decline, leaving the token testing its psychologically critical $1 support zone as legislative momentum in Washington grinds to a halt.

The U.S. Senate’s decision to move consideration of the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act past its August 7 recess leaves September 14 as the earliest plausible window for floor action rather than a confirmed voting date.

That delay deprives the market of a near-term catalyst and forces institutional buyers to evaluate whether regulatory clarity can materialize before the 2026 midterm election cycle takes over Congress.

The legislative setback highlights a persistent gap between regulatory expectation and legislative execution in crypto regulation.

While agency-level interpretations have acknowledged the token’s commodity treatment, asset managers and corporate balance sheets continue to delay large-scale commitments until Congress embeds those definitions directly into federal statute.

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The CLARITY Act cleared the House in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote and passed the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 in May 2026, landing on the Senate floor calendar on June 1.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has yet to grant the bill floor time, choosing instead to prioritize executive nominations and a foreign sanctions package.

With Republicans commanding 53 seats, leadership requires at least seven Democratic crossover votes to reach the 60-vote threshold needed to invoke cloture and clear procedural filibusters.

Democratic resistance centers on two main policy disputes. Commercial banks have aggressively lobbied against stablecoin provisions that allow crypto exchanges to pay yield on holdings, warning that yield-bearing stablecoins threaten traditional bank deposits.

Meanwhile, senior lawmakers have insisted on tighter ethics restrictions barring executive officials from participating in private crypto projects-a provision whose latest iteration was transmitted to the White House on July 30.

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If that’s truly the case, then pass the CLARITY Act!

Senator Cynthia Lummis acknowledged the bipartisan friction, noting that even Republican support faces hurdles with key members remaining “really resistant” to passing the market-structure framework without broader concessions.

Because the Senate leaves for its state work period from August 10 through September 11, the bill cannot proceed without a cloture motion filed before the break.

Without that procedural filing, the legislation must compete for limited calendar space alongside imperative government funding debates when lawmakers return on September 14.

Furthermore, because the Senate draft differs from the House version, both chambers would still need to reconcile and pass identical text within a tight September window before lawmakers adjourn again for October campaign recourses.

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The market impact of legislative stagnation is clearly visible across institutional investment flows. U.S. spot XRP ETFs took in $131.94 million in May during the peak of Senate committee momentum, but monthly net inflows contracted sharply to $59.46 million in June and just $27.29 million in July.

Institutional allocators appear unwilling to scale up positions while legal status rests on revocable regulatory interpretations rather than statutory law.

Prediction markets have aggressively re-priced the bill’s legislative prospects. Traders on Kalshi dropped the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to approximately 17%, down sharply from an 82% high in February.

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