XRP Price Prediction: Why the October 18-25 SEC Deadlines Could Trigger a Breakout

XRP is holding at $3.17, up 4% over the last 24 hours, with a daily trading volume of $6 billion. The 3rd largest cryptocurrency by market cap is showing strength as it approaches a key level. With US SEC deadlines for spot XRP ETF applications between October 18-25, the next few weeks could be big for the token.

September 17 = Fed rate cut

October 18 – 25 = XRP Spot ETFs final decision dates

●Grayscale = 10/18
●21SHARES = 10/19
●Bitwise = 10/20
●Canary Capital = 10/24
●WisdomTree = 10/25
●Franklin Templeton = 10/25
●CoinShares = 10/25

November 4 – 5 = Ripple Swell Conference pic.twitter.com/BHOHH8o3aB

The SEC is still delaying decisions on multiple spot XRP ETF applications, including the Franklin XRP ETF, which was filed in March. While the final decision on Franklin is scheduled for November 14, most other filings are expected to be in the October 18-25 window.

Polymarket betting a staggering 93% chance of XRP ETF approval in 2025. pic.twitter.com/757q1SlL5p

There are 15 XRP ETF applications under review. According to Polymarket, traders still assign a 93% probability of approval before year’s end.

This is similar to the run-up to Ethereum ETF approvals, where delays didn’t dent sentiment. For XRP, approval would be a big deal for institutional adoption and potentially new liquidity streams.

The altcoin season is also contributing to this backdrop. The Altcoin Season Index is at 78, indicating that capital is shifting into non-Bitcoin assets. This sets XRP up well if good news comes in October.

Beyond ETFs, on-chain and derivatives data show increasing demand. Futures Open Interest (OI) on XRP averaged $8.51 billion this week, up from $7.37 billion last week. More traders are going long. While OI is still below July’s $10.94 billion, the steady climb means more confidence.

Funding rates have also moved higher, 0.0107% on Friday, and traders are paying a premium to hold longs. Together, these show the market is positioning for significant moves.

Key takeaways that support the bullish case:

• OI up to $8.51 billion from $7.37 billion last week.
• Funding rates at 0.0107%, traders are willing to pay for longs.
• Altcoin Season Index at 78 means rotation into altcoins.

This means traders are preparing for an October catalyst that will unlock higher.

Technically, XRP price prediction has turned bullish following a breakout of a descending wedge. This bullish reversal pattern indicates that the consolidation is over.

The price is above the 50-day EMA at $3.01 and the 200-day EMA at $2.12, which serves as strong long-term support.

Fibonacci retracements show $2.99 as the recent launchpad; XRP is now testing resistance at $3.25. A break above this level could go to $3.43 and then $3.66, where sellers capped July’s rally. If momentum holds, medium-term targets are $5 as institutional flows come back into XRP.

The RSI is at 63 and not overbought. Recent bullish engulfing candles indicate buying pressure and align with the higher lows established in July.

For traders, a tactical long entry above $3.26, targeting $3.43 and $3.66 with stops below $2.99, offers a good risk-reward. If ETF approvals occur between October 18 and 25, XRP could rise above $3.66 and then initiate a larger rally, potentially reaching $5.

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