XRP Sends Bullish On-Chain Signal Despite Weak Price Action

XRP is showing signs of on-chain stabilization despite trading below the average holder cost basis, according to data by Alphractal. The data points to a market still under pressure, but one where network activity, exchange supply and leverage conditions do not resemble a panic-driven breakdown.

Alphractal’s asset overview places XRP’s spot price at $1.4343, below its realized price of $1.4862. That gap matters because realized price reflects the average on-chain acquisition cost across circulating XRP. With spot price below that level, the average holder is sitting on an unrealized loss.

The firm’s AI analysis framed the setup through XRP’s MVRV ratio, which stands at 0.9613. “An MVRV below 1.0 means the market is valuing XRP below aggregate cost basis,” the analysis stated. “Historically, this zone reflects late bear-phase or deep consolidation conditions, not euphoric pricing.”

That conclusion is reinforced by XRP’s NUPL reading, which sits at -0.0402 and places the asset in a “Fear” state. Net unrealized profit/loss slightly below zero suggests the network is marginally underwater, a zone where weaker holders may exit but longer-term accumulation often begins to appear. Alphractal described it as “a psychologically fragile zone,” but not yet a capitulation regime.

The supply picture is also notable. XRP’s market capitalization stands at $88.33 billion, ranking it fourth among crypto assets in the dataset, with 61.57 billion XRP in circulating supply. Exchange reserves amount to 3.68 billion XRP, or $5.27 billion, equal to roughly 6% of circulating supply.

For a top-five asset, that is structurally low. It suggests that a large share of XRP remains outside immediate trading venues, reducing available sell-side liquidity. Exchange reserves did rise 2.3% over seven days, indicating some short-term liquidity returning to exchanges, but Alphractal said the move is “not enough to suggest distribution dominance.”

The strongest part of the report is network usage. Active addresses reached 48,946, rising 17.7% over one day and 40.8% over seven days. Daily transaction count stood at 2.81 million, while adjusted transaction value reached $29.58 billion per day.

“XRP is showing a strong rebound in address activity, while transaction count and value are both rising weekly,” the analysis said. “This divergence — rising participation without aggressive price appreciation — typically reflects organic network usage rather than speculative churn.”

Valuation and network-efficiency metrics also point to a market that is under pressure but not structurally broken. Alphractal described XRP’s NVT ratio as elevated but stabilizing, token velocity as moderate and VANV as neutral. In the firm’s reading, valuation relative to transferred value is not overheated, while velocity has not collapsed.

Derivatives positioning appears similarly contained. XRP open interest stands at $1.49 billion, equal to 1.69% of market cap. The long/short ratio is 2.34, while top trader sentiment is 2.05. Although positioning is tilted long, 24-hour liquidations are only $870,000, suggesting price action is not currently being driven by a broad leverage flush.

Whale activity is less constructive. The whale-versus-retail delta is -0.81, indicating retail participation is exceeding whale aggression. Alphractal interpreted this as a sign that whales are not accumulating aggressively, though the data also does not point to heavy distribution. That supports the broader picture of range-bound accumulation rather than a decisive trend shift.

The main constraint remains capital inflow. Alphractal’s Delta Growth Rate on a 365-day moving-average basis stands at -111.7, which the analysis said confirms weak new capital inflows over the past year. XRP, in this reading, is still being supported more by existing holders than fresh demand.

The overall picture is therefore not one of full bullish confirmation. It is more specific: XRP is trading below cost basis, sentiment remains fearful and growth metrics are weak, but exchange supply is tight, leverage is controlled and network activity is recovering.

At press time, XRP traded at $1.43.