99% Of Bitcoin Supply In Profit – What This Means For Price

Bitcoin’s price gain in the last week has resulted in multiple other positive developments, ranging from a surge in ETF inflows to a bullish change in option trading calls, all signifying a renewed market confidence. In particular, over 99% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held at an unrealized profit, a milestone that underscores the market’s strength. However, historical trends suggest that such conditions often precede a major price correction.

In an X post on October 4, market analyst Ted Pillows shares an important cautionary insight on the present Bitcoin market. Using data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, nearly 99.3% of all Bitcoin supply is now in profit following the asset’s bullish resurgence in the first week of October.

Notably. With Bitcoin currently trading around $122,000, this milestone reflects the present overwhelming profitability of holders across the network. However, this is also a rare event that has historically preceded short-term market corrections.

According to Pillows, the last three times Bitcoin’s “supply in profit” ratio climbed above 99%, the market experienced brief corrections ranging from 3% to 10%. These drawdowns may be seen as “cooling phases,” allowing overheated momentum to reset before prices resumed their upward trend. 

Interestingly, in a separate X post, a fellow analyst with the username Rekt Capital shares a similar viewpoint. In particular, Rekt Capital explains that Bitcoin’s rejection at its all-time high around $124,000 has been consistently followed by a 13% price pullback. Based on these analyses, Bitcoin prices could be in potential danger of slipping to between $106,000 – $109,000 before finding a potential support zone for the next leg upward.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $122,246 after a price gain of 11.73% in the past seven days. Despite the strong cautionary predictions, historical data prove October to be a generally bullish trading month with an average gain of 21.89%  and a median gain of 21.20%. 

Meanwhile, Coincodex analysts agree with the notion, while noting the presently high bullish sentiments, as the Fear & Greed Index climbs to 71, representing extreme greed.

Looking at the short-term, these analysts expect Bitcoin to rise to $130,994 in the next five days but project an eventual retracement to around $126,535. However, they predict the premier cryptocurrency to reach a $140,009 target by the end of 2025. With a market cap of $2.43 trillion, Bitcoin remains the largest cryptocurrency with a market dominance of 58.4%.