Arthur Hayes: Chasing Quick Gains in Bitcoin Is a Losing Strategy

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is urging Bitcoin investors to shift their mindset away from short-term thinking and flashy expectations.

Key Takeaways:

• Arthur Hayes says short-term thinking and flashy expectations are hurting Bitcoin investors.
• He argues that Bitcoin outperforms traditional assets when adjusted for inflation and currency debasement.
• Despite his long-term outlook, many young investors still treat crypto as a fast track to wealth.

In a recent interview with Kyle Chasse, Hayes said the obsession with comparing Bitcoin to record highs in stocks and gold is misplaced and reflects a misunderstanding of Bitcoin’s long-term value.

“If you thought you were buying Bitcoin and the next day you were buying a Lamborghini, you’re probably getting liquidated,” Hayes said, calling out the impatience of newer investors.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $116,007, still below its all-time high of $124,100 set on August 14.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and gold both hit fresh record highs this week, $6,587 and $3,674, respectively, fueling questions about why Bitcoin hasn’t kept pace in recent weeks.

But Hayes dismissed those comparisons. “The premise of that question is flawed,” he said, when asked about Bitcoin attracting global capital flows similar to other asset classes.

“Bitcoin is the best performing asset when you think about currency debasement ever.”

Hayes argued that in inflation-adjusted terms, most traditional markets are lagging. “Deflate the housing market by gold, and it’s not even close to 2008 levels,” he said.

Even the S&P 500, he noted, appears weaker when measured against gold. “If you deflate things by Bitcoin, you can’t even see it on the chart.”

Despite the short-term volatility, Hayes remains firm in his belief that Bitcoin will outperform over time.

In April 2025, he projected BTC could reach $250,000 by year-end. That prediction was echoed weeks later by Unchained Market Research Director Joe Burnett.

For Hayes, Bitcoin is a long-term game, not a get-rich-quick trade.

Despite Hayes’ warning, young men are emerging as the dominant demographic in crypto ownership, viewing digital assets not just as investments, but as quick paths to wealth.

As reported, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has pushed back on predictions that Bitcoin could hit $1 million in the near term, warning that such a move would likely reflect a collapse in the US economy rather than a crypto success story.

“People who cheer for the million-dollar Bitcoin price next year, I was like, guys, it only gets there if we’re in such a shitty place domestically,” Novogratz told Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories podcast recently.

“I’d rather have a lower Bitcoin price in a more stable United States than the opposite.”

Novogratz explained that extreme currency devaluations often fuel demand for alternative safe havens, and Bitcoin, often dubbed digital gold, becomes a hedge against economic turmoil.

However, he cautioned that such conditions would come at the expense of civil society.

On the other hand, Eric Trump has reiterated his $1 million Bitcoin prediction, citing rising demand from governments and major institutions.

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