Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score Turns Red: More Decline Coming?

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score has observed a decline recently, a sign that investor cohorts have taken to selling.

In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared an update on how the Accumulation Trend Score has recently been looking for Bitcoin. The “Accumulation Trend Score” refers to an indicator that tells us about whether the Bitcoin investors are accumulating or not.

The indicator calculates its value not just by taking into account for the balance changes happening in the wallets of the investors, but also by weighing the changes against the size of the holdings themselves.

When the value of this metric is close to 1, it means the large entities on the network (or a large number of small addresses) are participating in net accumulation. On the other hand, it being near 0 implies the investors are in a phase of distribution (or they are simply not buying).

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score over the past year:

In the above graph, a dark blue/violet shade corresponds to high values of the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score, while an orange/red shade suggests values close to zero.

From the chart, it’s apparent that the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score assumed a dark shade during the last couple of months of 2024, implying the whales were participating in heavy buying and helping fuel the run to the new all-time high.

Towards the end of the year, accumulation from the investors started to drop and this year, the picture has completely turned upside down as the indicator has dropped to a low of 0.21.

Glassnode has also shared the data for another version of the Accumulation Trend Score that breaks down the accumulation/distribution behaviors across the various BTC cohorts.

As displayed in the graph, the largest investors in the sector, the “mega whales” holding more than 10,000 BTC, have interestingly been selling since September, with the distribution turning particularly heavy in the last couple of weeks.

The rest of the cohorts were buying during the rally, but even they have taken to selling recently. The whales, holders who own between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, are taking part in a particularly strong amount of selling right now.

It’s possible that as long as the blue color doesn’t return to this chart, Bitcoin would be stuck in its current bearish trajectory.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $93,900, down more than 3% in the past week.