Bitcoin all-time high cues come as US-China deal sends DXY to 1-month high

Key points:

• Bitcoin seeks consolidation after rapid gains as stocks and the US dollar surge on US-China trade deal news.

• Nearby order book liquidity forms potential targets for traders, which now include $102,000.

• A classic moving average retest suggests that a new all-time high should result.

Bitcoin (BTC) stuck to $104,000 at the May 12 Wall Street open as markets shifted on US-China trade deal news.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Bitcoin surfs US-China trade deal reactions

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD consolidating after hitting its highest levels since late January.

The US and China agreed to slash reciprocal trade tariffs on the day, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index to gain around 3%.

US dollar strength also benefited as a result, with the US dollar index (DXY) hitting one-month highs.

US dollar index (DXY) 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“The last time US tariffs on China were this high, the S&P 500 was ~200 points lower, 4 Fed rate cuts were expected in 2025, and Wall Street was calling for a recession,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of ongoing analysis on X. 

“Sentiment is everything.”US tariffs on China. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Bitcoin thus adopted the middle ground between major assets on the day as gold dropped precipitously to $3,208 per ounce, nearing month-to-date lows.

“BTC Swept most nearby liquidity above after chopping around the $103K-$105K area for a few days,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades told X followers alongside a chart of exchange order book liquidity from monitoring resource CoinGlass. 

“Below keep an eye on the ~$102K region as that's a pretty dense area in terms of liquidation clusters. Could be a good level for some action. Depending on the reaction there you can reassess.”BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

CoinGlass data showed increasing bids around the $103,000 mark after the Wall Street open.

New BTC price record “in the making”

Continuing, fellow trader CrypNuevo was among those doubling down on a longer-term bull thesis for BTC price action.

Related: Is Bitcoin about to go parabolic? BTC price targets include $160K next

BTC/USD, he noted, had conducted a successful retest of the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA).

Currently at $80,300, the 50-week EMA has functioned as a springboard for new all-time highs in recent years.

“We got the 1W50EMA retest and, consequently, the next leg up,” CrypNuevo explained in an X thread on May 11. 

“Every previous time that we saw this structure, we made a new high so the trend signals a new ATH in the making.”BTC/USDT 1-week chart with 50 EMA. Source: CrypNuevo/X

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on a classic bull market breakout signal on weekly timeframes in the form of a cross on the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.