Bitcoin and Crypto Bounce as Inflation Hits 3-Year High, but CryptoQuant Says the Bottom Isn’t In and SpaceX IPO Looms

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market resumed their rebound Wednesday even as US inflation climbed to a three-year high. The Consumer Price Index rose 4.2% in May from a year earlier, the fastest annual pace since 2023 and the third consecutive month in which the annual rate accelerated, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. On a monthly basis prices rose 0.5%, driven largely by surging energy costs tied to the renewed US-Iran conflict. Bitcoin edged up to roughly $62,000, a slight gain on the day, while Ethereum, XRP, and Solana also ticked higher.

The print complicates the Federal Reserve’s path. It was the first inflation reading under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, with the central bank holding its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75% through 2026. Traders now expect at least one rate hike before year-end, a reversal from the three cuts priced in earlier this year. Higher rates typically pressure non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. “For Bitcoin, an in-line print is unlikely to be a clean catalyst,” said Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at trading platform Theo. “It keeps liquidity expectations capped and risk assets trading more on positioning.”

The bounce does not mean the bear market has bottomed. As Bitcoin’s roughly 50% drawdown marks its shallowest bear market on record, a new report from CryptoQuant argues the low is likely still ahead. The firm puts Bitcoin’s realized price, the average cost basis across all market participants, near $53,600, about 13% below the current price. Bitcoin has historically bottomed at or marginally below that level in each major cycle, including the November 2022 FTX low. CryptoQuant said there are “structurally fewer Bitcoin buyers today than a year ago” and flagged the most severe single-week demand destruction since January 2022, with realized losses yet to reach the capitulation that has marked prior cycle bottoms.

A further headwind is approaching from outside crypto. SpaceX’s initial public offering, set to price Thursday and begin trading June 12 on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX, has drawn more than $250 billion in demand against a roughly $75 billion target, according to Reuters.

Analysts, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, have warned that mega-offerings from SpaceX and other firms compete for the same risk capital that crypto depends on. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded only one day of inflows since May 14, shedding more than $4.8 billion over that span.

Related Listen: Was the SpaceX IPO Really to Blame for Bitcoin’s Worst Week Since FTX?

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