Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: $73K Support at Risk as Benjamin Cowen Warns of NASDAQ Correction, Glassnode Shows Resilience

However, Glassnode data presents a more balanced picture, showing that spot trading activity remains above its August 2026 trough despite the recent price decline.

Bitcoin is hovering near $75,675, down approximately 6.15% in the latest reported session. Technical indicators point to sustained selling pressure, while the $73,000 support region is emerging as an important level for determining whether the current correction will extend further.

Benjamin Cowen has raised concerns about Bitcoin’s vulnerability to another decline if the NASDAQ 100 revisits its summer lows. In a November 5 post on X, the analyst highlighted the historical relationship between the performance of technology stocks and Bitcoin.

“If the NASDAQ can go back to the summer lows, then so can Bitcoin,” Cowen wrote.

The NASDAQ 100 chart highlights the summer low with a yellow arrow amid recent volatility and a sharp bearish candle. Source: Benjamin Cowen via X

His warning comes as technology stocks face renewed selling pressure following a period of volatility in broader financial markets. The accompanying NASDAQ chart highlights the previous summer low with a yellow arrow, drawing attention to the price level that could become relevant if the equity market continues declining.

Cowen’s argument centers on the relationship between Bitcoin and risk-sensitive assets. Although BTC operates independently of traditional financial markets, institutional participation and broader liquidity conditions have increased its exposure to changes in investor risk appetite.

The analyst’s latest comments also fit his broader October market outlook. In his October 30 research report, Bitcoin and the Cycle Clock, Cowen identified the possibility of another quarterly low after Bitcoin’s February and summer declines.

The report highlighted approximately $72,100 as the first-percentile level of his quantile regression model. It also identified the $73,000–$75,000 region as an important area to monitor, with a sustained break below it potentially indicating further downside.

Cowen’s more bearish scenario includes a possible move toward $58,000 if the broader market experiences another significant correction. Such a decline would bring Bitcoin closer to its June 2026 low and erase much of its recovery from the summer bottom.

However, the analyst’s historical comparisons do not establish that Bitcoin must follow the NASDAQ lower. Market correlations can change over time, particularly when liquidity conditions, institutional demand, and cryptocurrency-specific developments differ from previous cycles.

While Cowen’s outlook highlights macroeconomic risks, Glassnode’s trading-volume data offers a different perspective on current market conditions.

The firm’s seven-day average spot trading volume chart, which tracks activity across other exchanges, Binance, and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, shows that participation has not returned to the depressed levels recorded before the August 2026 price surge.

Glassnode data shows Bitcoin-native trading activity remains elevated, avoiding the prolonged low-engagement levels last seen in 2023 before the August surge. Source: Glassnode via X

Despite Bitcoin’s retreat from its recent highs near $120,000, trading activity remains above the August trough. This suggests that market participants have continued engaging with BTC rather than abandoning the spot market as prices decline.

The distinction between price performance and trading activity is important. A declining price accompanied by falling volume can indicate weakening market participation. By contrast, sustained volume during a correction suggests that buyers and sellers remain active, even as the balance of market orders favors sellers.

Glassnode’s Spot Volume Trend metric measures changes in seven-day average spot trading activity against the preceding seven-day period. Its methodology includes spot transactions quoted in U.S. dollars or related currencies and allows comparisons across individual exchanges and aggregated markets.

The chart’s resilience does not necessarily indicate that buyers are preparing for an immediate recovery. Elevated trading activity can also accompany distribution, profit-taking, and increased selling pressure.

Nevertheless, the absence of a return to previous low-activity conditions provides a useful counterpoint to the increasingly bearish technical picture. It indicates that Bitcoin’s current correction is unfolding in an actively traded market rather than one characterized by the prolonged inactivity seen before the August advance.

Bitcoin’s latest technical readings reinforce the bearish outlook across shorter timeframes.

At approximately $75,675 on November 6, BTC was trading below most of its key moving averages. TradingView’s aggregated technical summary recorded 16 sell signals, nine neutral readings and just one buy signal.

Moving averages accounted for most of the negative readings, with 13 sell signals, one neutral reading, and one buy signal. Oscillators were less uniformly bearish, recording three sell signals and eight neutral readings.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart. Source: Brave New Coin

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood near 38, indicating weakening momentum without reaching the conventional oversold threshold of 30. The Stochastic RSI was around 49, while the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) registered approximately -141.

Other momentum indicators were less encouraging. The Awesome Oscillator stood near -3,774, while the MACD level was approximately -1,403. Both generated sell signals, reflecting persistent downward momentum.

The moving-average structure also shows how far Bitcoin has fallen below its recent trading range.

The 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) was around $77,860, while the 20-day EMA stood near $79,100. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) was approximately $81,974, placing it well above the current market price.

The 200-day EMA stood near $76,481, while the 200-day SMA was around $73,190. The latter was the only moving average among the listed readings generating a buy signal.

This positioning makes the $73,000 region particularly important. It represents both a longer-term moving-average reference and an area close to the first classic pivot support.

Bitcoin’s immediate technical structure places the $75,400–$73,300 region among the most important downside areas.

The Camarilla pivot system identifies support near $75,405 and $74,392. Meanwhile, the classic pivot calculation places its first support at approximately $73,329.

The price may consolidate before continuing lower, while a sustained break above resistance could signal an uptrend. Source: TradingView

These levels provide several reference points as BTC approaches the lower end of its recent trading range.

A sustained defense of $75,400 could help limit immediate selling pressure. However, a decisive breakdown below this area would bring the $73,300 region into focus.

If sellers push BTC below $73,000, the next classic pivot support stands near $69,227. This would also increase the relevance of Cowen’s longer-term downside scenarios, although a move toward $58,000 would require a much deeper market deterioration.

On the upside, Bitcoin needs to recover the $77,000–$78,000 region to show signs of short-term stabilization. The broader resistance area extends toward $79,000–$80,000, where several moving averages and pivot levels converge.

A sustained recovery above $80,000 would weaken the immediate bearish structure. However, a greater improvement would require BTC to reclaim higher moving averages and establish support above previously broken levels.

The broader market environment will remain important for Bitcoin’s next move. Cowen’s warning highlights the possibility that another decline in technology stocks could increase pressure on risk-sensitive assets.

The November 5 selloff illustrates this potential relationship. The NASDAQ-100 fell approximately 6.4% during the U.S. trading session, while Bitcoin moved toward $76,000. The simultaneous declines indicate a period of broader market stress, although they do not independently establish that weakness in equities caused the Bitcoin selloff.

Derivatives activity also reflected the pressure. A November 6 market snapshot reported approximately $1.24 billion in liquidations across tracked instruments over 24 hours, including around $325 million attributed specifically to Bitcoin. Long positions accounted for approximately 90% of the BTC liquidation figure.

Such liquidations can amplify volatility as leveraged positions are forcibly closed. However, they do not necessarily indicate that equivalent amounts of capital have left the spot market.

For Bitcoin, the central question is whether continued spot-market participation can help absorb selling pressure while macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain.

Glassnode’s volume observations suggest that trading interest has not collapsed to previous lows. However, the technical indicators and moving-average structure show that buyers have yet to establish control.

For now, the $73,000 support region remains a critical reference for the BTC price prediction. Holding above it could provide a foundation for consolidation, while a sustained breakdown would expose lower support levels and strengthen the bearish scenario outlined by Cowen.