Bitcoin Bull Cycle is Over, Expect 6-12 Months of Bearish Trend: CryptoQuant CEO

Bitcoin’s bull cycle has come to an end, and the market may see 6 to 12 months of bearish or sideways movement, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.

Ju pointed to on-chain metrics that indicate a shifting trend. “Every on-chain metric signals a bear market,” he said, explaining that liquidity is drying up, and new whales are offloading Bitcoin at lower prices.

He added that on-chain indicators such as Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)—which analyze market valuation, investor profitability and overall sentiment—are showing key inflection points based on a 365-day moving average trend.

Every on-chain metric signals a bear market. With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices.@cryptoquant_com users who subscribed to my alerts received this signal a few days ago. I assume they've already adjusted their positions, so I'm posting… pic.twitter.com/0EIrpTCPVi

Bitcoin last traded around $83,156, marking a nearly 15% decline in the past month. After briefly topping $100,000 in late 2024, Bitcoin is now in a classic post-rally consolidation phase, testing key support levels between $82,000 and $85,000.

While institutional buying and speculation around a potential U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve have provided some optimism, resistance between $85,000 and $90,000 could make further gains difficult. A breakout won’t come easy, and traders are closely watching whether Bitcoin’s recent momentum has long-term staying power.

According to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, macro conditions remain a major wildcard. Any unexpected shifts in Federal Reserve (FOMC) policy could shake up the market. If sentiment turns bearish, Bitcoin could dip toward $75,000–$80,000, though a bullish macro backdrop could send it climbing back to $90,000.

Meanwhile, crypto cynic and market commentator Peter Schiff has issued his own warning, suggesting that Bitcoin could face even steeper losses if broader markets tumble.

“The NASDAQ is down 12%,” Schiff noted on X. “If this correction turns out to be a bear market, and the correlation where a 12% decline in the NASDAQ equates to a 24% decline in Bitcoin holds, when the NASDAQ is down 20%, Bitcoin will be about $65K.”

With technical indicators turning bearish, Bitcoin faces a crucial test in the coming months. If macro conditions remain stable, the market could stabilize near current support levels. However, if institutional sentiment weakens or the NASDAQ extends its decline, Bitcoin’s correction could deepen, putting $65,000–$75,000 on the radar.

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