Bitcoin Crawls Up On Weak Supply: 30D Momentum Reveals It Lacks Real Demand

Bitcoin is once again gaining momentum, now trading above the $115,000 level after a modest surge yesterday. The move comes as markets price in growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut at its upcoming meeting next week. Risk assets, including crypto, have responded positively to the prospect of looser monetary policy, though the broader backdrop remains volatile.

For Bitcoin, the challenge now lies in sustaining higher levels as bulls attempt to push further. While the reclaim of $115K signals strength, the path ahead is clouded with uncertainty as investors weigh macroeconomic risks alongside on-chain developments.

Adding perspective, top analyst Axel Adler shared data showing that Bitcoin’s 30-day momentum currently sits in the Impulse Cooling Zone. This indicator suggests that while short-term momentum has softened, the broader uptrend remains intact. Adler emphasizes that the trend is not broken, framing the current phase as a period of consolidation rather than a structural reversal.

With volatility likely to remain elevated in the days leading up to the Fed’s decision, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $115,000 could prove decisive. The combination of macro catalysts and onchain resilience may define the cryptocurrency’s next significant move.

According to Adler, Bitcoin’s current setup reflects a phase of sideways action rather than a structural breakdown. He notes that negative 30-day momentum, while the price holds in the upper range, typically signals step-by-step unloading. In other words, coins are changing hands gradually without triggering a full reversal in the trend. For a proper restart and renewed acceleration, Adler identifies a key marker: the 30-day momentum must not only return to positive territory but also ideally push above +10%. That would confirm a shift back into a strong impulse phase.

Until then, Adler emphasizes that the market remains in drift mode, shaped by thin liquidity. With fewer participants actively trading, the price can still crawl upward, largely due to weak supply and localized buybacks. However, this kind of advance carries the risk of a rapid collapse, since any spike in selling pressure could quickly overwhelm shallow order books.

Crucially, Adler stresses that real demand does not emerge at cycle highs. Instead, it forms during moments when Bitcoin trades at an obvious discount. Referencing his earlier work on Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis versus Premium/Discount, he highlights that meaningful inflows only arrive when the market offers value. In a mature bull phase, where buyers are wary of chasing peaks, sustained rallies depend on these discounted entry points rather than speculative momentum alone.

This perspective underscores the delicate balance in Bitcoin’s current landscape: still structurally strong, but highly sensitive to liquidity shocks.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $115,142 after a strong recovery from the $110,000 zone earlier this month. The 12-hour chart shows BTC climbing steadily and now pressing against a key cluster of moving averages. The 100 SMA at $114,610 is being tested as resistance, while the 200 SMA at $112,267 has now flipped into support, strengthening the bullish case. The 50 SMA at $111,987 is also trending upward, suggesting a short-term momentum shift in favor of buyers.

A successful close above $116,000 would mark a significant step forward for bulls, potentially opening the path to retest $118,000 and the critical resistance at $123,217. This level remains the major barrier before Bitcoin can attempt another push toward its all-time highs.

On the downside, immediate support rests near $114,000, followed by the $112,000 zone where the 200 SMA is positioned. Losing this level could weaken momentum and invite another round of selling pressure, with downside risks extending toward $110,000.

The chart signals that Bitcoin has regained its footing after recent volatility. If bulls can hold above the moving averages and break through $116,000, the next leg higher may be underway, though resistance at $123K will be the true test.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView