Bitcoin Deja Vu: Capital Inflows Mirror Pre-2021 Bull Run Momentum

On-chain data shows the cryptocurrency capital inflows currently look similar to December 2020, right before Bitcoin rallied from $18,000 to $65,000.

As explained by analyst Ali in a new post on X, Bitcoin and Ethereum are receiving a large amount of capital inflows currently. To showcase these positive flows, the analyst has referred to the “BTC + ETH Net Position Change” indicator from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

What this metric does is that it keeps track of the 30-day change taking place in the combined realized cap of these top two cryptocurrencies. The “realized cap” here basically refers to the total amount of capital (in USD) that investors have used to purchase a given asset.

As such, the metric’s net position change could provide hints about whether the total money invested into the coin in question has gone up or down during the past month.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in this indicator for Bitcoin and Ethereum over the past few years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin + Ethereum Net Position Change has been inside the positive territory recently and has only been climbing up. The trend naturally makes sense, as both of the assets have registered some sharp rises during the past month.

Currently, the indicator has a value of $19.7 billion. As Ali has pointed out, “This is around the same capital inflow we saw back in December 2020 before BTC surged from $18,000 to $65,000!”

In the same chart, data for two other metrics is also shown. The first is the “Stablecoin Net Position Change,” which, as its name suggests, keeps track of the monthly inflows and outflows for the major USD stablecoins in the sector.

Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, though, this metric doesn’t make use of the realized cap, but simply the supply of the stables. This is obviously due to the fact that these coins have mostly the same value at all points, so the realized cap wouldn’t be any different from the market cap (which itself is equivalent to the supply as the price is $1).

From the chart, it’s visible that the stablecoins have also enjoyed positive inflows recently. This means that all three major asset classes in the sector, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the stables, are receiving capital injections currently.

Most of the capital inflows and outflows towards the cryptocurrency sector happen through these three. The altcoins only receive their capital through a rotation from these core assets.

Thus, the stablecoins and top two cryptocurrencies simultaneously enjoying positive inflows have historically been a very bullish combination for the sector as a whole. This constructive combination didn’t form for most of this year but finally has during this latest leg in the rally.

The last indicator on the chart keeps track of the net incomings and outgoings from the sector as a whole by simply summing up the netflows for BTC + ETH and the stables. As is apparent, this metric also has a value similar to December 2020 at the moment.

Looking at Bitcoin’s historical performance following December 2020, it could mean that the BTC price is set for another price surge going forward.

Bitcoin had recovered above the $43,000 level just earlier, but it appears the coin has seen a setback as it’s now once again trading below the mark.