Bitcoin Expected To Hit $100,000 Before 2025, According To Kalshi Data

Bitcoin (BTC) has hit new highs in recent days, with many users of crypto betting site Kalshi predicting that the largest cryptocurrency on the market could hit the $100,000 milestone before the end of 2024. 

According to recent data from the event contract market, 60% of users believe Bitcoin will hit this milestone before January, while 45% are betting it could achieve this level as early as November.

Kalshi, which launched in 2021, allows users to bet on various outcomes, including economic data releases and election results. 

The platform gained significant attention this year due to its legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which ultimately led to US users being allowed to participate in betting markets for the presidential election. 

Since the US presidential election on November 5, Bitcoin has surged more than 28%. The election outcome has been viewed as bullish for cryptocurrencies, especially with President-elect Donald Trump expressing his support for the industry and hinting at more favorable regulations. 

Analyst Mike Colonnese from H.C. Wainwright commented on the current market conditions, stating: Strong positive sentiment is likely to persist through the balance of 2024, and we see Bitcoin prices potentially reaching the six-figure mark by the end of this year.

The analyst further noted that Bitcoin is now in a phase of “price discovery” after breaking through its all-time highs early last Wednesday morning, following the official announcement of Trump’s election victory.

This combination of market enthusiasm and regulatory optimism, he suggests, could see BTC continue its upward trajectory, attracting new investors and cementing its place in the financial landscape by the end of 2024. 

Although betting markets and investors have set their sights on BTC  hitting $100,000, Wall Street analysts are warning about the “speculative” nature of cryptocurrencies. 

Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, emphasized this point in a note to clients on Tuesday. 

“We continue to view crypto assets as a speculative trade rather than a strategic investment in portfolios,” she stated. Marcelli expressed skepticism regarding the potential for digital assets to make significant inroads into disruptive real-world applications, noting their propensity to increase portfolio volatility.

UBS highlighted that since 2014, Bitcoin has experienced three major drawdowns exceeding 70%, with an average recovery period of three years.

On a more positive note, other cryptocurrencies saw gains on Wednesday. Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and even Dogecoin (DOGE) experienced upward movement. 

Dogecoin surged notably after Trump announced that Tesla CEO Elon Musk and former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy would head a newly formed “Department of Government Efficiency,” cleverly abbreviated to DOGE.

However, crypto-related equities did not follow the bullish trend of Bitcoin. Stocks like Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) took a breather after recent rallies, with Coinbase shares down about 2% on Wednesday, while Robinhood remained relatively unchanged. 

After hitting a new all-time high of $93,000 on Wednesday, BTC has come back down to the $90,350 level, yet, still up 20% on the week. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com