Bitcoin must reclaim this key 2025 level to avoid new lows — Research

Bitcoin (BTC) neared $90,000 at the March 24 Wall Street open as analysis warned of “conflicting signs and signals.”

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $88,772 on Bitstamp — its highest levels since March 7.

Bitcoin followed stocks by opening the week higher after almost a month of sell-side pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite index were up 1.6% and 2%, respectively, at the time of writing.

Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter explained the upside as a positive reaction to news that the US government was easing the severity of new trade tariffs set to become effective on April 2.

It quoted sources reporting that “sector-specific tariffs” would emerge instead of blanket rules.

“The S&P 500 is now up +75 points on the news,” it added.

S&P 500 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Crypto market momentum had already gained thanks to rumors of the US potentially using gains on its gold reserves to purchase BTC.

“If we actually realize the gains on [these holdings], that would be a budget-neutral way to acquire more Bitcoin,” Bo Hines, executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, said in an interview with the Crypto in America podcast last week.

In his latest market analysis on March 24, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, suggested that the news had not fallen on deaf ears.

Despite the relatively modest BTC price uptick, he wrote in an X thread, “the announcement that the administration was considering selling Gold Reserves to buy Bitcoin certainly gave speculators some hopium.”

“With gold in ATH territory, and BTC in a correction, this would be an opportune time to take some profit on Gold and buy Bitcoin,” he added.

XAU/USD 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Continuing, Alan laid out two key prerequisites for sustained BTC price upside.

Related: RSI breaks 4-month downtrend: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

The 21-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at $84,674, as well as the 2025 yearly open at around $93,300, must both be reclaimed as support.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with 21SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“With conflicting signs and signals, how can we tell if Bitcoin is returning to a path to ATH territory or if this is a developing bull trap? The answer is knowing what your validation/invalidation levels are,” he explained.

The yearly open, in particular, would be crucial, with Alan arguing that until it is reclaimed, “there is an increased likelihood that price will retest the lows.” 

“If/when that happens, I'll be buying those dips when buying resumes,” he concluded.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.