Bitcoin Poised For Bullish Breakout—But Only If This Key Condition Is Met

Bitcoin traded as high as $73,000 following a 9% price rally in the past week. However, the broader market suggests the leading cryptocurrency is still stuck in a bear phase that’s been dragging on for more than six months. Interestingly, historical data suggest that recent price movement could trigger a significant bullish rebound, providing investors with a mid-term to long-term relief period.

In an X post on April 11, renowned analyst Ali Martinez shares a positive observation of the Bitcoin price chart, highlighting a cyclical price rally. Notably, this price surge is triggered by a retest of a particular long-standing ascending trendline during an extended correction period, as is being observed. Martinez names this ascending trendline the “Parabolic Guard,” describing it as probably the most consistent technical level in Bitcoin history. Over the last 10 years, a price retest of this support line has consistently preceded a massive rebound. In 2017, Bitcoin’s contact with this trendline produced a staggering 961% gain in the following months.

This is perhaps the most respected technical line in Bitcoin $BTC history. For nearly ten years, this ascending trendline has acted as the "Parabolic Guard." Every touch has historically preceded a massive expansion:

• 2017: +963% • 2018: +261%• 2020: +1,126% • 2022:… https://t.co/uIDjVPVIyx pic.twitter.com/QloO6k66OO

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) April 11, 2026

A similar event was observed in 2018; however, it resulted in a lower yield of 261%. In 2020, Bitcoin’s retest of the Parabolic Guard triggered 1,126% price increase, before the 2022 bear market commenced. The bullish condition was met again later in 2022, resulting in a 660% gain observed over the last four years.  According to Martinez, the historic ascending trend line currently runs between $56,000 and $60,000, about 20% below the current market price. Interestingly, the present cycle low lies around $60,000, which Bitcoin formed amid an intense market sell-off in early February.

According to Martinez’s latest post, the market would likely need a return to this market bottom to end the bear market and initiate a long-term recovery. The prominent analyst also explains that Bitcoin’s contact with the Parabolic Guard would slow smart money’s accumulation in anticipation of the next price surge.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was valued at $71,508, following a 1.81% loss in the last day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume has dropped by 27.35% and is valued at $26.35 billion. According to CoinCodex data, the overall market sentiment is heavily bearish, while the Fear & Greed Index remains in extreme fear territory. Nevertheless, CoinCodex analysts expect Bitcoin’s market bounce, driven by the easing geopolitical tensions, to persist for the time being, with price predictions of a $79,729 in the next five days.

Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview