Bitcoin Price Prediction: $104K – BTC Price Correction or Breakout Reloading?

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently at $104,322, trading within a tight range and up 0.14% over the last 24 hours. But traders aren’t just looking at charts; they’re preparing for significant changes from US regulators.

Starting January 1, 2026, the IRS will require wallet-by-wallet cost basis tracking for crypto assets, including Bitcoin. This means precise recordkeeping and could change US trading strategies.

Starting in January 2026, the IRS will require platforms like @coinbase and @krakenfx to issue 1099-DA forms for all digital asset disposals.

These new tax forms will report:

→ Type of asset
→ Date of sale
→ Proceeds from the transaction

But there’s a catch: For assets… pic.twitter.com/Tjhid56MrQ

Previously, traders used a pooled basis for tax reporting; however, the new IRS Form 1099-DA will require detailed tracking for each wallet, similar to traditional stock trading.

While this will increase transparency, it could also increase compliance costs and slow trading activity, especially for retail and institutional investors with multiple wallets.

• IRS cost basis changes are effective January 2025
• Detailed wallet tracking is required under new rules
• Increased tax compliance costs

Texas lawmakers passed SB21, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) bill, 24-7 in the Senate, and it’s headed to Governor Greg Abbott’s desk. If signed, Texas will be the third US state with an SBR law, after New Hampshire and Arizona, and the second to invest state funds in crypto.

TEXAS Bitcoin Reserve Update:

The Senate has voted to adopt the Conference Committee report (24-7) on Bitcoin Reserve bill SB 21.

Both chambers have now adopted the report, meaning the bill can (finally) go to the Governor's desk for signing.

Texas SBR incoming. https://t.co/0LlkqNHntC pic.twitter.com/MNOTWCMC6D

The bill allows the Texas Comptroller to create a Bitcoin reserve from state investment funds, guided by an advisory committee. Amendments set a $500B market cap threshold for eligible assets and exclude staking options. This comes as Texas continues to dominate US Bitcoin mining, with the highest mining hash rate.

• Texas to create state-level Bitcoin reserve
• $500B market cap threshold ensures stability
• Mining-friendly environment solidifies Texas’s crypto hub status

On Sunday, the Bitcoin price prediction is mixed as BTC consolidates in a narrow range of $ 105,000 to $10,350. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is testing a downward sloping trendline, with the 50-period EMA at $106,331 capping the rally.

A Doji at $104,894 is a sign of indecision, while a lower high pattern indicates a potential continuation of the downtrend. The MACD is bearish, with a deep red histogram and a widening gap below the signal line.

Levels to watch:

• Support: $103,501, $102,141
• Resistance: $106,331, $107,914

A reversal at $103,501 (Hammer or Bullish Engulfing with MACD convergence) could spark a move to $106,331 or higher. Until then, be careful.

For traders, it’s simple: wait for a breakout or reversal. Without confirmation, bearish.

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