Bitcoin selling at $95K is ‘profit-taking pressure test’ but BTC whales are still buying

Key Takeaways:

• US GDP shrank -0.3% in Q1, far below +0.3% forecasts, sparking recession fears.

• Bitcoin faces selling pressure with its spot volume delta dropping $300 million in 3 days.

• Whales are accumulating BTC, but smaller holders are selling, hinting at profit-taking.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price dropped under $93,000 on April 30, after the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data revealed a -0.3% contraction in Q1. While the GDP missed expectations of +0.3%, the GDP Price Index soared to 3.7%—the highest since August 2023. Polymarket odds of a recession in 2025 hit 67%, with consumer confidence at its lowest since May 2020.

Meanwhile, in March 2025, PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation fell to 2.3% (above the expected 2.2%), and Core PCE dropped to 2.6% (in line with expectations). Still, February’s Core PCE was revised from 2.8% to 3.0%, signaling mixed inflation trends.

During the 2020 COVID-19-induced market crash, BTC initially followed traditional markets before rallying over 300% by year-end as the global M2 money supply increased, reflecting its appeal during periods of monetary expansion. However, stagflation, highlighted by the -0.3% GDP contraction in Q1 2025 and a 3.7% GDP Price Index, pose short-term risks. 

Cointelegraph noted that high inflation often deters retail crypto investment, as seen in 2022 when BTC fell 60% amid Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The March 2025 PCE inflation data suggests cooling pressures that could ease Fed rate hike fears and support Bitcoin.

On the other hand, February’s upward revisions (headline PCE from 2.5% to 2.7%, Core PCE to 3.0%) signal persistent inflation, keeping the Fed’s next moves uncertain. While fear of stagflation may pressure BTC in the short term, its long-term hedge potential remains valid.

Related: Bitcoin macro indicator that predicted 2022 bottom flashes 'buy signal'

Bitcoin’s spot volume delta dipped over $300 million over the past three days, increasing potential sell-off pressure for BTC around the $95,000 level. 

Data from Glassnode indicates the 7-day moving average of BTC spot volume delta recorded negative flows over consecutive days. The negative inflows progressively increased with a minor $16 million flush on April 26, followed by $30.9 million on April 27, $76.1 million on April 28, and $193.4 million on April 29.

This sharp decline signals aggressive selling and weakening spot demand, a signal to profit-taking or a potential short-term trend reversal. Despite the sell-off, the analytics platform noted that accumulation trends among Bitcoin holders paint a more nuanced picture. Whales holding over 10,000 BTC remain in an accumulation mode, with a trend score near 0.95.

However, smaller holders show signs of distribution. The 10–100 BTC group is trending toward 0.6, while those with 1–10 BTC (0.3) and less than 1 BTC (0.2) are net sellers. 

This top-down accumulation suggests the current selling pressure stems from short-term holders potentially taking profit around the $95,000 level. Termed as a “profit-taking pressure test” for BTC, the current market is at a key decision point, where profit-taking is a pivotal metric to monitor. 

Last week, the total realized profit on an hourly chart surged to $139.9M/hour, roughly 17% above its $120M/hour baseline. With the current spot delta outflows, the realized profit may hit new highs this week. 

Related: Bitcoin traders predict BTC price gains ahead of $96K liquidity clash

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.