Bitcoin short-term ‘technical sell-off’ under $100K possible ahead of May 13 CPI print

Key takeaways:

• Possible de-risking ahead of the May 13 CPI print could be playing a role in today’s BTC price correction.

• Bitcoin market structure and qualitative fundamentals remain bullish, suggesting today’s correction could be short-lived.

Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly stumbled on May 12, falling to $102,388 after hitting an intraday high at $105,819 during the US trading session. At first glance, the abrupt correction seemed unexpected given the positive news of the day.

Since Sunday evening (May 11), mainstream media headlines reported on the positive headway made in the US-China trade talks occurring in Switzerland, and throughout the evening, US President Donald Trump ran his victory lap via Truth Social posts heralding the positives of the deal. 

BREAKING: U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva pic.twitter.com/JjgvYAvAGe

As news of the tentative deal broke, US equity futures markets soared, and these gains materialized into a 1,000-point rally in the Dow at the opening bell. Looking beyond the temporary resolution of the US-China trade war, Bitcoin has racked up back-to-back wins over the past two weeks. On May 12, Strategy CEO Michael Saylor announced that the company had acquired 13,390 Bitcoin, bringing its total balance to 568,840 BTC. 

On the same day, shares of healthcare company KindlyMD surged up to 600% after announcing the merger with Nakamoto Holdings, a Bitcoin investment company founded by David Bailey, who is Trump’s current crypto adviser. The month of April followed a similar trajectory to today, where frequent Bitcoin treasury creation announcements were made by an assortment of US-based and international companies. 

Related: US real estate asset manager launches $100M tokenized fund with institutional backing

While Bitcoin's mass adoption appears to be accelerating, data from Glassnode suggests that BTC price could be in for a brief period of consolidation after gaining 9% in the last week.

The onchain analytics firm posted the above chart and warned that: 

At major crypto exchanges, there was an uptick in selling in perpetual futures markets, and selling was also seen in spot markets as BTC price rallied into a sell wall near $106,000.

From a trader's point of view, a portion of the selling could be possible derisking ahead of the May 13 Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, along with the view that the Trump trade deal with China is now priced in after BTC failed to rally and hold above $104,000 on such momentous news. 

Leading into the trade war news, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallied and stock indexes soared. Seeing Bitcoin failing to break and hold $104,000 to $105,000 prior to stock futures opening and then BTC being unable to follow equities opening bell gains in the NY session suggests some traders elected to close profitable longs ahead of tomorrow’s CPI or before the current bid appetite shifts to lower price levels. 

This view can be interpreted by the chart above, showing open interest rising hour-over-hour, along with an abrupt spike in the funding rate as short positions opened and longs were liquidated. 

Spot purchasing played a significant role in last week’s Bitcoin price rally, and the May 12 announcement from Strategy and spot BTC ETF inflows of the past 7 days raises more immediate concerns of whether the type of buying appetite seen since late April will spill over into another week. 

Considering the accelerating pace of Bitcoin adoption within traditional finance and the rapidly improving crypto regulatory environment, the current price action appears to be a short-term technical correction. Perhaps, dependent upon tomorrow’s CPI print, spot and margin longs will return in force once the market digests the details of the report.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.