Bitcoin shows growing strength during market downturn — Wintermute

Bitcoin is showing growing resilience to macroeconomic headwinds compared with traditional financial markets, according to an April 14 report from crypto market maker Wintermute.

The report noted that Bitcoin (BTC) has held up relatively well during the ongoing market downturn, even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped to their lowest levels in a year and bond yields surged to highs that had not been seen since 2007.

“Bitcoin’s decline was comparatively modest, revisiting price levels from around the US election period,“ Wintermute wrote.

According to Wintermute, “This marks a notable shift from its historical behavior in crisis situations.” In the past, Bitcoin’s losses were considerably greater than those of traditional finance indexes. The shift highlights Bitcoin’s “apparent growing resilience amid macroeconomic turbulence.“

Founder of Obchakevich Research, Alex Obchakevich, told Cointelegraph that he expects this to be a temporary trend:

“As the trade war intensifies, Bitcoin may return to the list of risky assets. Because investors will most likely look for salvation in gold.“

Obchakevich said that factors that caused the stability of Bitcoin were growing institutional interest through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the promotion of Bitcoin as digital gold due to its decentralization and independence.

Related: Bitcoin traders target $90K as apparent tariff exemptions ease US Treasury yields

A change in Bitcoin market dynamics

Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price increased by 7% to $83,700 — later reaching nearly $86,000 at the time of publication. This growth occurred as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-over-year, with a month-over-month decline of 0.1% — the first monthly decrease since May 2020. This signals that inflation is cooling off.

Year-over-year CPI percentage change. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Furthermore, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in March. The same metric stood at 3.2% in February, also showing signs of disinflationary pressures. Still, according to Wintermute, the trend may soon reverse:

“Despite this progress toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target, the recent escalation in global trade tensions introduced new potential inflationary risks, which are not yet reflected in March’s data.”

Monthly PPI percentage change. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Related: Trade wars could spur governments to embrace Web3 — Truebit

More market turmoil expected

Bitwise analyst Jeff Park recently argued that US President Donald Trump’s trade policies will create worldwide macroeconomic turmoil and short-term financial crises that will ultimately lead to greater adoption of Bitcoin. He said that we should expect an inflation increase:

“The tariff costs, most likely through higher inflation, will be shared by both the US and trading partners, but the relative impact will be much heavier on foreigners. These countries will then have to find a way to fend off their weak growth issues.”

Wintermute explained that the ongoing trade war heightens the risk of increased inflation and economic slowdown. Prediction market Kalshi traders recently placed the odds of a recession hitting the US this year at 61%, and JPMorgan sees a 60% likelihood.

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