Bitcoin Struggles To Reclaim Key Cost Basis As Realized Losses Climb — Details

Since the past week, the Bitcoin price has traded below the cost basis of one of its most reactive investor groups. Based on recent on-chain information, the world’s largest cryptocurrency might face further trouble if its price fails to reclaim this crucial level.

In an X post on May 22, Axel Adler Jr. analyzes Bitcoin’s struggle to reclaim its Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price. The crypto analyst identifies this level at around $80,000 (specifically $80,217). For context, the STH Realized Price tracks the average acquisition price of newer BTC investors. When Bitcoin trades below this threshold, it often means that many of its short-term holders are holding unrealized losses, thereby increasing selling pressure.

BTC is trading below STH cost basis.$80,217 = STH break-even $77,550 = current priceAverage STH is underwater and losses are now being realized:

Net Realized P/L: -$176M Losses: $366M Profits: $190MUntil $80.2K is reclaimed, bounces lack confirmation.

Adler AM #175 … pic.twitter.com/R359OfOopg

— Axel Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) May 22, 2026

Notably, Axel Adler Jr. points out that these realized losses have risen across the Bitcoin market. The pundit reports that the Net realized profit is now roughly –$176 million, arising from the difference between $366 million in realized losses and $190 million in realized profits among Bitcoin short-term traders. Adler notes that as long as Bitcoin remains below the STH cost basis, future market rebounds would be mere unconfirmed or temporary retracements. Simply put, these temporary price recoveries below the $80,217 threshold might be relief rallies rather than actual signs of a broader trend reversal. 

Hence, before market participants can judge Bitcoin to be displaying bullish intent, the price has to break clearly above the former STH support that might now resist the expansion of Bitcoin’s price. This is because, as the price approaches the STH breakeven (realized) price, investors become more likely to exit their positions, thereby adding bearish pressure.

In another X post, Maartunn reveals that Coinbase is seeing one of the strongest waves of bearish pressure since February. The relevant indicator here is the Coinbase Premium Gap, which primarily tracks buying and selling activity among US-based investors. According to the chart shared by Maartunn, the Coinbase Premium Gap has dropped deeply into negative territory, coinciding with Bitcoin’s latest price weakness.

When the premium turns positive, it generally signals stronger buying activity on Coinbase. However, a negative reading typically reflects increased selling pressure or weakening demand from US investors. Interestingly, strong negative Coinbase premium readings, such as those currently seen, have often appeared during corrective phases or periods of short-term fear. However, these can also precede the establishment of local bottoms if selling exhaustion begins to emerge. As of this writing, Bitcoin stands at a $75,514 valuation, down 2.56% since the past day.