Bitcoin’s Base Case: What To Expect Before The Run-Up Above $100,000

Crypto pundit Crypto Bully has shared his base case for Bitcoin and what to expect before the flagship crypto rallies above $100,000. This comes as BTC continues to struggle to hold above the $70,000 resistance amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. 

In an X post, Crypto Bully stated that the path and exact levels of Bitcoin are not important in the long run, aside from immediate support and resistance levels. The analyst shared key points, including the observation that downside retests have not worked for a while. He pointed to the $85,000 level, which he noted is the logical lower high from the previous value generated before a further collapse due to extensive selling. 

However, the analyst suggested that the downtrend is not over, noting that bear market bottoms take months, not weeks. His accompanying chart showed that Bitcoin could still drop to $50,000. In the short term, he predicted that the flagship crypto could drop to $65,000. As for the bullish outlook for BTC, Crypto Bully stated that a break above the current level near $72,000 could easily spark a rally towards $85,000.

He explained that a Bitcoin rally to $85,000 is possible, given the strength the flagship crypto has shown amid the ongoing geopolitical turmoil. The analyst added that the aggressive inflows into the BTC ETFs have not disappeared during this period. SoSoValue data shows that the Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $767 million this week. 

Crypto Bull said the best DCA strategy is to buy Bitcoin whenever it drops from $65,000 down to $50,000. He revealed that his current spot buying average is around $67,000. 

A CryptoQuant analysis noted that the Bitcoin bottom is “not quite” in. The analysis revealed that, despite BTC’s resilience amid recent geopolitical tensions, on-chain data indicate the leading crypto is in a critical “stress test” phase. It added that the bottoming process could take a long while, with institutions being the primary investors in this cycle. 

The analysis also highlighted two paths to a Bottom for Bitcoin. The first path is a potential Black Swan that could trigger a crash, forcing liquidations and wiping out high-cost “new money.” CryptoQuant noted that this is the fastest route to a solid floor, which could form between one and two months. 

The second path is longer and involves a scenario in which Bitcoin trades sideways between $60,000 and $80,000 for a year, allowing new money to grow into long-term holder status. Under this path, the bear market could extend to late 2026 or early 2027. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $71,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.