Bitcoin’s Volatility May Be Down But Expect a ‘Meaningful Move’ Soon, Says Fidelity

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin’s Volatility May Be Down But Expect a ‘Meaningful Move’ Soon, Says Fidelity 

Bitcoin has been sitting still recently, and the coin’s volatility is now lower than 98.5% of all days in its 17-year history, according to asset manager Fidelity.

Writing on X, the firm’s digital asset arm said that spot trading volume was also at its lowest level since 2019. 

Bitcoin’s price is virtually unmoved over a 30-day period, with some analysts saying the bottom is likely in. The coin was recently trading for $65,329, nearly 50% lower than the all-time high it notched in October 2025. 

Update: BTC volatility is now lower than ~98.5% of all days in its history.

Meanwhile, spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2019.

Think of it like a coiled spring: The longer volatility remains compressed, the greater the potential for a meaningful move… https://t.co/8ZXosxXFd5

“Think of it like a coiled spring: The longer volatility remains compressed, the greater the potential for a meaningful move once it breaks,” Fidelity Digital Assets wrote. 

The asset manager pointed to a post from earlier this month, where it noted that while volatility was down, such “periods of compression don’t tend to last forever.”

Investment manager VanEck on Tuesday said that bitcoin’s thirty-day realized volatility had fallen to 27.2% annualized, down from 30.4% the prior month and less than half bitcoin’s long-run average of roughly 80%. 

It added that based on the length of prior cycles, the firm sees a bottom potentially forming anywhere between September and November of this year. 

Bitcoin’s wild price swings have dampened — and 2025 was the least volatile year for Bitcoin, according to a K33 Research report from December. 

The firm predicted that 2026 would see the biggest and oldest digital asset beat both gold and equities in terms of gains.  

Following the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in 2024, bitcoin has become available to a whole new class of investors. 

Now, more cautious retail investors — previously put off by cold storage — can buy the asset via brokerage accounts. 

Institutional investors like sovereign wealth funds and banks are also able to buy bitcoin exposure via the ETFs. 

As bitcoin’s market cap has grown, the asset’s volatility has come down significantly, and now experienced less wild price swings than in the past. 

So far, bitcoin’s bear market is the shallowest it’s had in its 16-year history. 

This post Bitcoin’s Volatility May Be Down But Expect a ‘Meaningful Move’ Soon, Says Fidelity  first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mathew Di Salvo.