Bloomberg Analysts: Spot Bitcoin ETFs Now Have 75% Odds of Launching This Year

Today, Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart raised their odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by the SEC to 75% by the end of this year, and 95% by the end of 2024.

"The chances of the SEC approving spot Bitcoin ETFs this year have risen from 75% from 65% following Grayscale's court win, we believe, while the odds by the end of 2024 reach 95%," said the analysts. "The judges unanimously repudiated the SECs arguments, and the agency will struggle to justify further denials as it faces deadlines, negative PR and HashDex's novel approach." 

Yesterday, the DC Circuit court of appeals vacated the SEC's denial of Grayscale's $GBTC conversion into a spot Bitcoin ETF. While this did not result in GBTC automatically being converted to a spot Bitcoin ETF, this victory was a big step towards the approval of one in the future. 

 "The appeals court found the SEC to be arbitrary and capricious in its denial oder of GBTC's conversion into an ETF and vacated the decision," the analysts continued. "The written opinion from Judge Neomi Rao repudiated virtually every argument made by the SEC when comparing the Bitcoin spot and futures markets." 

A SEC decision on multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs is due by the end of this week, with many believing the applications will be further delayed as these so close to the Grayscale court outcome that just happened. Although, Balchunas said he's "not sure timelines will matter as much in this situation," and that what is more likely is that eventually the SEC will give in and approve an imminent launch. 

James Seyffart