Is Altseason Here? Analyst Says Altcoins Still Lag Behind Bitcoin

Over the past weeks, the altcoins’ season (or the altseason) seems to be the biggest narrative in the digital asset market, leading virtually all conversations amongst the crypto crowd. This narrative is beginning to feel even more organic due to the strong performances of the largest altcoins, ETH and XRP, in recent weeks.

Ethereum, the “king of altcoins,” has been on a relatively significant run in the last two months, reclaiming the $4,000 mark for the first time since December 2024. Meanwhile, the price of XRP has returned above $3, surging by more than 10% in the past week.

However, the latest on-chain observation points that the altcoin season might only just be warming up and has not kicked in full gear just yet. The altseason, a period when mid/small-cap altcoins outperform BTC, is often marked by capital rotation from the largest cryptocurrency to the rest of the market.

In a recent post on the X platform, an on-chain analyst with the pseudonym Darkfost postulated that the altseason “has not really started yet.” This hypothesis comes despite the relatively improved performance of the altcoin market over the past few months, with various non-BTC assets leading the sector in gains.

The rationale behind this Darkfost’s theory is based on the performance of various asset classes relative to Bitcoin over the last few months. The analyst compared the market cap growth of Bitcoin, large-cap altcoins (the top 20 largest altcoins), and mid-to-small-cap altcoins by calculating the difference between their 365-day and the 30-day moving average (MAs).

Typically, the difference between the 365-day moving average and the 30-day moving average can be considered an indicator of growth momentum. Rapid market cap growth is witnessed when the short-term moving average (30-day MA) rises faster than the long-term moving average (365-day MA), while a lagging 30-day moving average indicates slow growth momentum.

In their post on X, Darkfost noted that the altcoin market is having its weakest performance in this cycle relative to the premier cryptocurrency. As shown in the highlighted chart, the Bitcoin market capitalization currently outpaces the top 20 largest altcoins and the other mid-to-small-cap assets.

According to the crypto analyst, this similar performance pattern was seen earlier in the year before the general market experienced a severe downturn. Nevertheless, Darkfost noted that the strongest action, which resembled a “true” altseason, happened back in the first quarter of 2024.

As of this writing, the altcoin market is valued at over $1.55 trillion, reflecting an over 12% increase in the past seven days.