Is The Bitcoin Bull Cycle Really Over? This Indicator Suggests Price Could Rebound To $130,000

The past week has been a rollercoaster ride for the cryptocurrency market, as the value of most large-cap assets took a significant hit over the last seven-day period. Specifically, the Bitcoin price fell beneath $80,000 for the first time since that almost vertical surge in November 2024.

As expected, the market downturn has led to discussions and commentary about the price of Bitcoin already reaching its top in this cycle. Nevertheless, the latest on-chain data suggests that the premier cryptocurrency might still have room for a final upward rally.

In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, an analyst with the pseudonym Tarekonchain revealed the “truth” behind the current cycle, saying the latest market crash might be an opportunity for investors to buy the dip. This prediction is based on a key on-chain indicator, the MVRV Ratio.

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is an indicator that tracks the ratio between a coin’s market cap and its realized cap. When the value of this ratio is greater than 1, it implies that more investors are considered to be in profit at the moment.

High MVRV ratios are considered price top signals, as traders typically show a propensity to sell off their assets when they are in the green. According to Tarekonchain, the price of Bitcoin peaked in every previous cycle when the MVRV ratio crossed 3.5.

However, on-chain data shows that this indicator only reached 2.7 as the price of Bitcoin notched a new all-time high around the $110,000 region. Tarekonchain noted that the Bitcoin price might not have topped out in the current cycle as its MVRV ratio is yet to reach 3.5 as it did in previous cycles.

The Quicktake analyst also noted that while BTC’s slump beneath the 365-day moving average is undeniably a bearish signal, the premier cryptocurrency still has an opportunity to rebound from the critical $65,000 support level. “This does not mean the price must reach $65K, but rather that it’s a strong support level,” Tarekonchain added.

According to the analyst, the MVRV ratio needs to at least cross 3.0 to be able to confirm the Bitcoin price reaching the cycle top. If the premier cryptocurrency finds support and successfully rebounds, investors could see BTC target new all-time highs — the final peak of this cycle — around $120K–$130K.

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $85,000, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours.