“Parabolic” Signal That Triggered Past Bitcoin Bull Runs Reappears

Bitcoin price made a 5% move today, poking above $19,000 momentarily. It is currently the largest daily climb of 2023 and since the FTX collapse. 

More significantly, the sharp rally tagged a level that triggered a possible trend change according to the weekly Parabolic SAR. In the past, the technical indicator has lived up to its name. What could it mean this time?

The start of 2023 has been positive for altcoins. But up until today, Bitcoin has been mild by comparison. 

Following today’s CPI data release coming in at 6.5% and Biden’s victory lap on inflation, Bitcoin price soared by $1,000, taking the top cryptocurrency above $19,000 briefly. 

More importantly than what happened today, was what occurred on the weekly timeframe. BTCUSDT (Binance) weekly tagged the Parabolic SAR for the first time since May 2022. The LUNA collapse pulled Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies lower, beginning the second, more aggressive phase of the recent downtrend. 

The same Parabolic SAR signal was also triggered prior to the 2019 crypto rally, and the 2020 to 2021 bull run (pictured below). Both rallies also blossomed from the same exact trend line previously.

The Parabolic SAR is a technical indicator designed by J. Wells Wilder, Jr. and is used to detect changes in trend direction. The tool consists of a visual overlay of SAR dots that hover above or below price action, determining the direction of the trend. 

When the SAR dots are tagged, it suggests that a trend might “stop and reverse” — which is precisely what SAR stands for. Therefore, it’s especially effective in timing entire and exits. Because the SAR dots travel higher or lower alongside the trend, they can be used reliably to set trailing stop losses. 

On weekly timeframes, BTCUSDT (Binance) touched the Parabolic SAR, essentially telling short traders to get out of the position. If bears had used the PSAR for trailing stop losses, they’ve now been stopped out — purposely — in profit.  

While the signal isn’t a guarantee of continued upside, considering that the possible signal of a trend change has appeared alongside the coincidental timing of a long-term trend line touch, the recovery from this level could be more sustainable than many are ready for.