Strong Bitcoin Rise “Expected Within 1-2 Months,” Quant Explains Why

A quant has explained how Bitcoin may be expected to see a strong rise in the coming months based on a golden cross that has occurred in this indicator.

As an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post pointed out, the Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has shown a golden crossover recently. The “SOPR” here refers to an indicator that tells us whether the BTC investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss.

This metric works by going through the transaction history of each coin being sold/transferred to see what price it was moved at last time. If this price is less than the current spot price for any token, its sale contributes to profit realization.

Similarly, transactions involving coins of the opposite type imply loss realization is occurring. The SOPR sums up these profits and losses for the entire sell supply, and determines their ratio.

When the value of this indicator is greater than 1, it means the average holder could be assumed to be selling their coins at a net profit. On the other hand, being under the mark implies that the overall market is realizing more losses than profits.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 30-day and 365-day moving averages (MAs) of the Bitcoin SOPR over the past decade:

As is visible in the above graph, the 30-day MA of the Bitcoin SOPR fell under the 365-day earlier in the year, but recently, it has reversed its direction and has broken past the level. This increase naturally corresponds to the return of notable profit-taking in the sector following the latest rally of the cryptocurrency.

In the chart, the quant highlighted the previous instances of this crossover. It would appear that each of these led into bullish price action for the asset.

“After the golden cross appears, the market usually starts a strong rise within 2 months at the latest,” notes the analyst. Thus, it’s possible that Bitcoin could be gearing up for another run shortly.

This latest bullish crossover in the Bitcoin SOPR is the second time this cycle that the pattern has appeared, so it’s possible that the run now would lead the asset to its final peak of the cycle.

It remains to be seen, though, whether the crossover between the monthly and yearly averages of the indicator would prove to be bullish for BTC or not.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $95,000, down almost 3% over the last week.