This Bitcoin Momentum Signal Preceded Last October’s Crash — Another Downturn Incoming?

After a steep downturn in early February, the Bitcoin price saw a significant turnaround over the following two months. While the month of May initially continued on this positive note, the premier cryptocurrency seems to have cooled off over the past week — aligning with BTC’s track record of not registering three consecutive months of positive price action during a bear-market year. Interestingly, recent on-chain observations suggest that trouble might be brewing for the Bitcoin price, at least in the near term. 

In a new post on the X platform, crypto analytics firm Bitcoin Vector explained that the current waning bullish momentum might be a more damning signal for Bitcoin than it is perceived to be. According to the market intelligence firm, BTC’s price momentum doesn’t have to turn deeply negative before investors pay attention.

Bitcoin Vector highlighted that the Glassnode momentum indicator, which measures the speed and strength of price movements (in a specific direction) within a period, has witnessed a sharp downturn in recent days. The analytics platform noted that while the focus would be on the momentum turning negative, the +0.5 mark is the level to watch.

According to Bitcoin Vector’s analysis, price momentum crossing below +0.5 is the first signal that the upward trend might be fading and sellers might be overtaking the market. The analytics firm revealed that the last two times the flagship cryptocurrency lost this critical level, the BTC price structure shifted.

Those last two times include: October 2025, when the Bitcoin price suddenly crashed to just above $100,000, and February 2026, when the market leader fell to around $62,000. Bitcoin Vector noted that these moves were characterized by a weakened spot CVD (cumulative volume delta), a return of seller control, and a deteriorating price structure.

Recent on-chain data show that price momentum remains above +0.5 — albeit at around +0.7. “But if it loses that level while Spot CVD keeps weakening, caution rises fast. That would be the first signal that deterioration is starting beneath the surface,” Bitcoin concluded.

Ultimately, the world’s largest cryptocurrency seems to be at a critical juncture, with the waning price momentum potentially signaling what is to come over the next few weeks. 

As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $75,950, reflecting an over 2% price decline in the past 24 hours.