This Chart Warns Bitcoin’s Momentum May Be Running Out, Here’s Why

Bitcoin is currently trading above $107,000 following a recent peak that saw the asset touch a new all-time high above $111,000. Although this marks a 3.9% drop from its highest level, the broader monthly trend remains positive, with BTC still recording a gain of over 10% in the last 30 days.

The market, however, has shifted its attention from price movement to on-chain dynamics, particularly the behavior of new and long-term holders.

On-chain analyst Avocado Onchain, writing on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, examined Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) data to assess investor trends during this stage of the cycle.

In a post titled “UTXO Age Band Analysis: Sluggish Inflow of New Investors May Limit Bitcoin’s Upside,” he explored whether BTC’s continued rally can be sustained without fresh capital inflows from newer market participants.

His findings suggest that while older coins are being sold, the inflow of newer investors remains low, a factor that has historically limited momentum in previous cycles.

The UTXO age distribution reveals that a significant portion of the BTC supply remains with holders who have kept their assets for over six months. The 6–12 month age band has increased, suggesting a large share of market participants still fall into the mid- to long-term holding category.

Historically, when the proportion of these holders started to shrink, it often preceded major tops in Bitcoin’s price cycle, driven by a transition of coins from long-term to new investors.

However, despite Bitcoin reaching new highs, the percentage of UTXOs held by investors with a holding period of less than one month remains well below the historical threshold seen near previous market tops.

During earlier bull cycles, new investor participation often surged past 50%. Currently, that figure sits around 20%, even lower than the peak levels during this recent rally. Avocado Onchain warns that without a notable increase in participation from newer investors, the market may struggle to maintain upward momentum.

While retail inflows appear to be lacking, large-scale accumulation is continuing in the background. A recent update from CryptoQuant on X highlighted that Bitcoin addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, excluding exchanges and miners, have been steadily increasing.

Large holders are accumulating.

Addresses holding 1K–10K BTC (excl. exchanges & miners) are rising, a sign of growing investor confidence.

Historically linked to higher prices. pic.twitter.com/vCCml3GfHB

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 29, 2025

These entities are often associated with institutional investors or long-term strategic holders, and their accumulation is often interpreted as a signal of growing confidence in BTC’s long-term prospects.

Although retail remains largely inactive, institutional behavior may serve as a foundation for price support. The current dynamics reflect a market in a transitional phase, with potential for upside if broader participation begins to increase.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView