Top Analyst Confirms The Bearish Target: Bitcoin Could Ease Down To $40,000

The latest Bitcoin (BTC) rally is already showing signs of losing momentum, and several analysts warn that a larger correction may be closer. 

AlejandroBTC—posting on X (formerly Twitter)—called the current price behavior “a dead cat bounce,” suggesting the recent rebound may be near its end and that Bitcoin could be set up for a much deeper drop.

In AlejandroBTC’s “most optimistic” framing, the move above $82,000 could have actually marked the top for the cryptocurrency. If that scenario plays out, he warned it could trigger a major downturn. His estimate points to a potential 50% decline toward the $40,000 region. 

In his view, that area would not just be another dip, but potentially where a more durable “solid base” could form—effectively implying a market bottom could be built from there rather than continuing to spiral lower.

Another analyst, CryptoCon, offered a different way of thinking about where Bitcoin might be in its cycle. CryptoCon cited the average timeline for past bear markets, saying that based on the historical average of 391 days, the current bear market is estimated to be 55% complete. 

According to his calculation, the market is 216 days into the cycle. He added that the lowest drawdown point so far is around -52%, which he described as about 25% higher than the previous cycle’s low. 

Put plainly, CryptoCon argues that, if history is the guide, Bitcoin may not yet be near the typical drawdown levels many past bear markets eventually reached—and that means there’s still room for additional downside before the “usual” worst-case territory appears.

That bearish case was echoed by market expert CryptoRover, who suggested that this week “might be the top for Bitcoin.” Rover’s point was not only about current price behavior, but also about historical repetition. 

He pointed to examples from past years: the pattern played out in 2014, leading to a 65% crash; in 2018, leading to a 64% crash; and in 2022, leading to a 52% crash. Based on that track record, Rover implied there are reasons to think something similar could occur again.

To support his view that risk may be rising as the cycle matures, CryptoRover also outlined three catalysts he says could contribute to downside if they align with the current timing. The first is an open interest (OI) spike.

He said Bitcoin recorded the largest monthly OI spike of 2026, and that the same pattern appeared in altcoins as traders try to chase the latest momentum. In his framework, when OI rises this quickly, it can often be followed by a liquidation cascade—especially if prices reverse and heavily leveraged positions get forced out.

The second factor is the likelihood of a new Federal Reserve (Fed) chair being confirmed this week. Rover claimed that every time a new Fed chair has been confirmed, Bitcoin has tended to drop. 

The third factor is stock euphoria. CryptoRover said equities have been “absolutely parabolic” recently and that a cooldown is likely. He pointed out that when stocks hit new all-time highs, Bitcoin and altcoins stayed well below their own highs. 

He concluded that if stocks undergo a correction, crypto—still lagging compared to the sector’s performance—could face increased pressure.

Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com