70% Decline In Corporate Crypto Treasury Buying: What’s Going On?

A recent report from Bloomberg has unveiled a striking decline in corporate investment in crypto treasuries, highlighting a significant shift in this new trend that has considerably taken the market by storm throughout the year.

Purchases by publicly traded digital-asset treasuries have plummeted dramatically, from 64,000 Bitcoin (BTC) in July to just 12,600 in August, with September’s figures currently at around 15,500. This drop represents a major 76% decrease from the fervor of early summer.

The broader cryptocurrency market has faced additional challenges, with Bitcoin experiencing nearly a 6% decline over the past week, exacerbated by a broader selloff characterized by sudden liquidations. 

Shares in some treasuries that previously raised capital through PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity) deals have seen valuations plummet, with some trading down as much as 97% below their initial issuance prices.

One of the reasons behind this shift is regulatory scrutiny, with reports indicating that US authorities are now investigating “unusual trading activity” within digital-asset treasury shares ahead of their acquisitions. 

Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, alleges that there is limited transparency regarding the crypto acquisition prices of the underlying tokens and the actual share counts, particularly since many PIPE deals include warrants that complicate matters with their volatility and dilution effects.

The valuations of some treasury firms, which once enjoyed high market premiums, have drastically declined, with their market value approaching the actual Bitcoin they hold. 

This shift is measured by the market-cap-to-NAV (net asset value) multiple, which now reflects a concerning trend: the disconnect between stock prices and the value of Bitcoin reserves is closing.

As corporate buyers retreat, Bloomberg asserts that the crypto market is experiencing a “feedback loop” that diminishes institutional support. The report alleges that this absence of a stable capital source undermines demand, leading to a more precarious market environment. 

The current landscape has given rise to a “two-speed market.” On one hand, derivative markets exhibit significant stress, with demand for longer-dated futures collapsing and $275 million worth of Bitcoin longs liquidated in just 24 hours. 

Conversely, crypto-related products continue to attract investment, as evidenced by the iShares Bitcoin Trust exchange-traded fund (ETF), which garnered $2.5 billion in inflows in September, a substantial increase from $707 million the previous month.

Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at Arca, emphasized that the current weakness in the crypto market is likely a consequence of diminished activity from digital asset treasuries rather than a direct cause of selling pressure. The reduction of these major buyers, he contends, has created a more cautious market environment.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com