After 95% Crash, Avalanche Forms High-Timeframe Reversal Structure

After enduring a brutal 95%+ drawdown from its 2021 peak, Avalanche is now showing early signs of a potential high-timeframe reversal. With price stabilizing at macro support and forming an emerging Elliott Wave structure on the weekly chart, the current phase could mark a critical turning point in the broader cycle.

AVAX is currently forming an Elliott Wave structure on the weekly chart, trading within a massive descending channel that has remained intact since the 2021 all-time high. The broader structure suggests the asset is still operating within a long-term corrective phase, but key technical signals now point to a potential higher-timeframe inflection point.

According to Crypto Patel, after enduring a brutal 95%+ cycle correction, Avalanche appears to have completed Wave 1 with a macro low near $5.67. Price is now transitioning into the early stages of a Wave 2 recovery phase, a critical moment in the Elliott Wave sequence that often determines whether a sustainable expansion phase can follow.

Structurally, the weekly chart shows several notable developments. Wave 1 seems to have finalized within the $8–$5 macro bottoming zone, establishing a potential base of support. At the same time, price continues to trade within the long-term descending channel that has defined the broader downtrend.

Technically, the chart reflects a clean bearish breakdown followed by a retest of the lower trendline, a classic deviation setup. Additionally, AVAX executed a liquidity sweep into the weekly demand zone between $8 and $7. Meanwhile, the overall fractal structure also mirrors the compression phase seen in the previous cycle before expansion.

For confirmation, Crypto Patel emphasizes the need for sustained weekly strength and expansion back toward mid-channel resistance. A decisive push in that direction would strengthen the bullish Wave 2 thesis and signal that the larger recovery structure is beginning to unfold.

CryptoPatel outlines an ambitious upside roadmap for Avalanche, projecting sequential targets at $33, $58, $97, and ultimately $147. Should the broader channel expansion scenario play out into 2026–2027, price could trend toward the upper boundary of the multi-year descending channel. From the macro bottom to the final target, that would represent an estimated 2,489% expansion.

The bullish thesis remains intact as long as Avalanche holds above $5.50 on a weekly final support, which marks the Wave 1 low and last major structural support. Maintaining this level preserves the higher-timeframe recovery structure and keeps the Wave 2 continuation scenario in play.

However, a confirmed weekly close below $5.50 would invalidate the setup and signal structural weakness. As it stands, this remains a high-timeframe, patience-driven opportunity with asymmetric risk-to-reward, a framework best suited for spot accumulation and long-term holders.