Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Could Surge 7x Under GENIUS Act, Bloomberg Analysts Say

Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) could be one of the biggest corporate beneficiaries of the United States’ first comprehensive crypto legislation, the GENIUS Act, which was signed into law in July 2025 and established a federal framework for stablecoin issuance and oversight.

According to Bloomberg analysts Paul Gulberg and Samuel Radowitz, the new framework may significantly strengthen Coinbase’s fast-growing stablecoin business, particularly if adoption of dollar-backed tokens expands into mainstream payments.

In 2025, Coinbase generated an estimated $1.35 billion in revenue tied to stablecoins, a 48% increase from $911 million in 2024. That segment represented 19% of the company’s total annual revenue, underscoring how important stablecoins have become to the exchange’s overall business model.

Unlike trading fees, which tend to rise and fall sharply alongside crypto market volatility, stablecoin-related income is derived from interest earned on reserves backing Circle’s USDC. 

Those reserves are primarily invested in US Treasuries and other low-risk instruments, producing yield. Coinbase receives a significant share of that interest income, making the business more predictable and generally higher margin than transaction-based revenue.

The importance of this revenue stream became particularly evident in late 2025. During a period when Bitcoin (BTC) and broader crypto prices declined sharply, and Coinbase’s fourth-quarter revenue dropped 20%, income generated from stablecoins remained comparatively stable. 

Paul Gulberg and Samuel Radowitz argue that this consistency could become even more meaningful if regulatory clarity accelerates broader USDC adoption.

The GENIUS Act is central to that outlook. By providing a national regulatory structure for stablecoin issuers, the legislation could remove barriers that have limited the use of USDC in areas such as cross-border payments and merchant settlements. 

If businesses and financial institutions adopt stablecoins more widely for real-world transactions, the overall supply of USDC could expand substantially.

An increase in USDC circulation would require additional reserves to back those tokens, which in turn would generate more interest income from the underlying Treasury holdings. 

Because Coinbase shares in that yield, greater adoption directly translates into higher potential revenue. Bloomberg analysts estimate that under favorable conditions, Coinbase’s USDC-related revenue could grow by two to seven times its current level.

Yet, reaching the upper end of that projection depends on whether Coinbase can continue offering rewards to customers who hold USDC. If customer reward mechanisms remain in place, analysts believe USDC adoption could accelerate more rapidly. 

However, even if those programmes are limited or scaled back in the ongoing negotiations on the CLARITY Act, the clearer regulatory environment created by the GENIUS Act is still expected to support meaningful growth in stablecoin usage.

At the time of writing, the exchange’s stock, trading under the ticker name COIN, surged towards $185 during Wednesday’s trading session, marking a 22% increase in the 24-hour time frame. 

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com