Is Toncoin Price Gearing For A Rebound At $5? This On-Chain Metric Suggests So

The cryptocurrency market was in a somewhat uncertain phase over the past week following the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States. This uncertainty is demonstrated by the diverse performance of various assets in the market.

The Toncoin price, for instance, experienced an almost 9% price decline in the last seven days, giving emphasis to the bearish half of the market. According to the latest on-chain data, the cryptocurrency might be preparing for a price rebound after its recent struggles.

In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, an analyst with the pseudonym Maartunn shared their latest on-chain observations and how it could offer into TON’s price trajectory. The relevant metric here is the Normalized Risk metric (NRM), which evaluates the price risk of an asset compared to its historical price data.

This on-chain indicator can be used to determine whether a cryptocurrency (Toncoin, in this case) is in a favorable or unfavorable risk position. Typically, the value for the Normalized Risk metric ranges from 0 to 1, with values closer to 0 signaling lower risk while values closer to 1 signaling higher risk.

As observed in the highlighted chart, the Normalized Risk’s value is currently closer to zero, implying that the TON price is approaching the low-risk territory. Historically, low values of this metric have been correlated with local price bottoms for Toncoin.

For example, the price of TON slumped to around $5.3 before climbing to $6.8 in August 2024 while the Normalized Risk metric was well beneath 0.1 at the time. Similarly — about a month later, the altcoin’s price jumped to $5.9 after sliding down to $4.6 while the Normalized Risk indicator was around 0.1.

Nevertheless, Maartunn noted that it may take some time for this indicator to “fully bottom out and reach its lowest risk level.” Nevertheless, recent on-chain data suggests that the Normalized Risk metric is nearing a key turning point, implying a strong rebound might be on the cards for the TON price.

As of this writing, the price of Toncoin stands at around $5.08, reflecting a mere 0.7% increase in the past 24 hours. This sluggish single-day action underscores the uncertainty in the market — and to be frank, Toncoin’s struggles over the past few weeks.

The TON price has been unimpressive on broader timeframes, failing to successfully break above the $6 mark in the past month. According to data from CoinGecko, the altcoin’s value has declined by nearly 15% in the past month.