Will Biden Pardon Diddy? Polymarket has the Odds

Polymarket shows Jim Biden, President Biden’s brother, leading the predictions at a 29% probability. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the face of the U.S. COVID-19 response, trails at 21%. Intriguingly, figures like former President Donald Trump and cryptocurrency mogul Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) are tied at a slim 5% chance, reflecting both the political drama and legal controversies of the past few years. Other notable names on the list include Edward Snowden and Julian Assange, both at 4-5%, showcasing ongoing public fascination with whistleblowers and questions of justice.

Source: Polymarket

The list’s diversity—from high-profile politicians like Hillary Clinton (3%) and Liz Cheney (16%) to pop culture icon Diddy at a meager 1%—reflects the broad spectrum of political and cultural discussions around pardons. However, some inclusions, such as Ross Ulbricht (creator of the Silk Road marketplace), reveal deeper tensions in public debates about criminal justice reform and digital freedoms. 

The betting volumes—totaling over $7.5 million—signal intense interest in this rare presidential power, with odds offering an opportunity for bettors to weigh the dynamics of power, legacy, and redemption in Biden’s final days in office. As the January 2025 deadline approaches, this speculative market is both a fascinating glimpse into public opinion and a commentary on the evolving political landscape.