Is There a Sunny Outlook for Solana?

There was a period, back in the euphoria of crypto’s 2021 bull market period, when Solana was the blockchain name of the moment, spoken about as the next big thing, and with, according to its advocates, the potential even to outdo Ethereum in the race to become the foundational network of choice for web3 developers.

There were multiple reasons for this optimism, not least the fact that it had backing from VCs keen to promote its virtues. And, on balance, it should be noted that Solana does have significant characteristics in its favor. Most advantageously, it’s fast and cheap, two critical factors in attracting developers, who should in turn attract further users.

Remember that this was prior to the Ethereum Merge, a time when there were significant doubts as to whether Ethereum would ever make its long-promised transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. Constant delays in the execution of Ethereum’s protocol change were beginning to foster a sense that scaling would, in turn, be delayed, and that sky-high fees and network congestion would never be resolved.

Additionally, Ethereum Layer 2s were not as prominent as they are now, and, although it was known that The Merge would not solve scaling issues on its own (such issues still exist), execution would at least indicate that development was proceeding in the right direction.

Against this backdrop, alternative Layer 1 blockchains, including not only Solana, but also Cardano, Avalanche and others, provided a compelling alternative. From here, Solana picked up in activity, thanks to its simplicity (no friction-adding Layer 2s required) and, at a time when blockchain-based digital art was making headlines for some huge sales, its NFTs. In fact, Solana would quickly become the second most-well known network for NFTs (after Ethereum) and evolved into an active community of NFT creators, traders and collectors, who were optimistic about the future of the network.

Problems and Criticism

Amidst the bullishness around Solana, the blockchain also ran into some problems, which would, over time, become increasingly conspicuous.

A recurring fault was the issue of network outages when the entire blockchain would effectively stop working. The most recent of these occurred last month and lasted for almost twenty hours, and after that came a total of fourteen outages throughout 2022. The first breakdown in Solana’s history was in December 2020, the same year as its launch, and when the blockchain was still serving only a relatively small number of users.

Solana has also been criticized for a perceived lack of decentralization, a factor which is vitally important in the crypto world. One reason for this is the network’s initial token allocation when, according to data from research platform Messari, almost 50% percent of the blockchain’s native token, SOL, went to project insiders, with very little allocated to a public presale. Since staked SOL enables the operation of network validators, we can infer that a small number of holders exercise outsized control over the validation of transactions.

Criticism of Solana as a VC-centered project became even more of an issue towards the end of 2022 when FTX collapsed. The wreckage around this catastrophe was of particular relevance to Solana due to the network’s links with Sam Bankman-Fried. The disgraced CEO of FTX had invested $314.2 million in Solana Labs, through the FTX-linked Alameda Research, and had lauded Solana in interviews, creating a perception, once the post-downfall reality about FTX had come to public light, of a disreputable connection.

Is Solana in Line for a Comeback?

Solana was certainly looking worse for wear towards the end of last year, but 2023 has, lately, seen hints that a comeback may be in the works. Notably, there has been recent news about the Worldline payment services provider entering into a partnership with Solana.

This integration means web3 projects operating on Solana will gain access to the Payment Orchestration platform run by Worldline, which removes the need for projects to create multiple payment integrations since Worldline’s platform directly connects with over 300 payment providers and methods, including fiat on/off ramps.

This development follows Worldline announced plans to provide services within the Decentraland metaverse project, indicating that web3 and crypto-oriented development are on its radar as areas to expand into.

There has also been growing anticipation about the in-development Solana phone, called the Solana Saga. This product was announced back in the summer of 2022 and has been expected to ship in early 2023. It’s an Android device augmented for web3 applications and payments, and, if it arrives soon, will come at a time when crypto urgently needs to go mobile in order to demonstrate that practical integration and daily use cases are a reality.

Additionally, there is speculation about Render Network migrating to Solana. Render is specialized in decentralized hardware solutions (specifically, GPU rendering), and in a proposal about the potential move, its Founder, Jules Urbach, stated that: “Solana has the right mix of speed without compromising security (vs side-chain approaches).” No decision has yet been made, and there is a 21 day community feedback period, which began on March 20th.

The Foundation released a primer on RNP-002 today.The post details RNP-002: Layer 1 Network Expansion.In accordance with RNP-000 there is up to a 21 day community feedback period that begins today! We would love your feedback. https://t.co/90j0gmhCOw

As with much of web3 and crypto, Solana’s future is unclear, but, while issues around network reliability are ongoing, and there may continue to be criticism about a perceived lack of decentralization, it appears that there are some potentially constructive developments lining up.