Bitcoin Faces Persistent Resistance at $100K, Analyst Eyes Next Step

Weeks after hitting an all-time high above $109,000, Bitcoin’s price remains under pressure. It is currently trading below the $100,000 mark, an 11.4% decrease from its peak.

The crypto asset’s recent trajectory has raised questions about its next move as it trades within a relatively tight range. According to CryptoQuant analyst Percival, Bitcoin is exhibiting a pattern that hints at upcoming significant market movements.

In a post titled “Bitcoin ready for either side,” Percival highlights the asset’s current “loading phase.” He explains that Bitcoin’s price dynamics have historically shown abrupt rises followed by prolonged periods of consolidation.

The Choppiness Index—a measure used to determine whether the market is trending or consolidating—currently indicates instability, with daily and weekly readings at 62 and 72, respectively.

Percival notes that this is a sign of impending volatility. Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin’s range has fluctuated within a band of roughly 16%, suggesting mounting pressure for a breakout.

Percival outlines key price levels that could act as support if Bitcoin’s price declines further. The Short Term Holders Cost Base, located at $92,000, is the first significant support level.

If that fails, the next support zone lies between $80,000 and $89,000, aligning with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). These levels could provide critical price floors as traders assess whether the current downtrend is nearing an end.

The analyst also examines the short-term Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a metric that helps gauge whether coins moving on-chain are being sold at a profit or loss.

Currently sitting just below 1, the SOPR suggests the market is near equilibrium. Percival compares the current scenario to August 2023, when a similar setup preceded significant price movements.

At that time, low volatility cleared out traders with positions in the wrong direction before a major rally ensued. Today’s conditions—marked by a test zone near 0.99—suggest that sudden price swings could trigger liquidations and short-term panic.

Overall, Percival points out that Bitcoin’s market structure often involves false moves before establishing a clear trend. Breakout traders positioned near the current levels could find their positions shaken out before a sustained directional move materializes.

This pattern highlights the importance of caution, particularly for traders attempting to time the market’s next breakout. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is currently trading at $96,265 after seeing a 1% decrease in the past day.

According to a renowned crypto analyst, Ali on X, the asset is likely to see a notable rebound in the near term based on its TD sequential indicator flashing a buy signal.

After accurately timing the recent local top, the TD Sequential indicator is now flashing a buy signal on the #Bitcoin $BTC 4-hour chart, suggesting a potential price rebound! pic.twitter.com/3IzinRirxo

— Ali (@ali_charts) February 17, 2025

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView