Bitcoin STH-SOPR Metric Reclaims Critical Level — More Pain For Short-Term Holders?

The price of Bitcoin has shown signs of resilience and strength over this weekend after facing significant bearish pressure heading into it. On Friday, August 5, the flagship cryptocurrency suffered a mild correction following the release of weaker-than-expected employment data in the United States.

While the Bitcoin price has struggled to break out of its current choppy state, its sustained hold above the psychological $110,000 level displays the current resolution of investors. The latest on-chain data suggests that the market might have absorbed excess selling pressure and could be regaining momentum.

In a September 6 post on the X platform, pseudonymous crypto analyst Frank revealed a shift in the activity of a key group of Bitcoin investors over the past few weeks. According to the market quant, BTC’s short-term holders (STH) (with coin holdings less than 155 days old) are beginning to lock in some of their profits.

This on-chain observation is based on the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) metric, which assesses the profitability ratio of spent outputs (held for more than 1 hour but less than 155 days). This indicator provides insight into whether STHs are selling at a profit or at a loss.

When the Bitcoin STH-SOPR metric has a value greater than 1, it implies that the short-term investors are selling at a profit. On the other hand, an STH-SOPR value less than 1 suggests that the short-term holders are capitulating and selling at a loss.

Frank shared that the Bitcoin STH-SOPR metric has returned above the critical 1 threshold level for the first time in 20 days. This means that the short-term investors, who were busy selling at a loss the past three weeks, are now back realizing profits.

Typically, when the STH-SOPR metric is below 1, it means that weak hands are exiting the market, enabling the diamond hands (long-term investors) to accumulate. Meanwhile, a return above the 1 threshold could mark the end of that distribution period, with a recovery rally typically on the horizon.

However, the pertinent question remains whether the past 20 days were enough to shake out the weak hands for the next leg up. Frank noted that the market could want to inflict more pain on the short-term holder cohort before the next move higher. Hence, investors might want to exercise caution before making a decision, as the market seems to be at a critical juncture.

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands around $110,200, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. According to CoinGecko, the market leader is up by nearly 2% in the last seven days.