Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Only 13% in Profit—A Calm Before the Storm?

Bitcoin is gradually regaining its footing after a brief pause in its upward momentum. At the time of writing, the asset is trading above $118,000, reflecting a 10% increase over the past month.

Despite this modest recovery, Bitcoin remains approximately 3.1% below its all-time high, which was reached earlier this month. The current market phase suggests a period of cautious recalibration, as traders assess the sustainability of the latest price movements amid fluctuating on-chain and exchange metrics.

One of CryptoQuant’s QuickTake contributors, Darkfost, has drawn attention to a key trend among short-term Bitcoin holders. According to his analysis, on-chain traders, those actively buying and selling on spot markets, are only seeing 13% unrealized gains at present.

This segment refers to holders of BTC aged between one and three months, who typically represent more reactive and sentiment-driven behavior.

Compared to prior bull cycles, where profits reached as high as 232% in 2012 and 150% in 2021, the current cycle has shown far more restrained profitability, peaking at just 69% before slipping lower.

Darkfost emphasized that even though Bitcoin’s price remains close to record highs, the current low profit margins held by short-term investors, whose realized purchase price averages around $104,000, may explain the lack of widespread selling.

These holders may be waiting for stronger gains before taking profits. However, the analyst warned that if market conditions deteriorate further and these holders start to incur losses, their eventual capitulation could lead to a rapid sell-off.

Historically, such capitulations have coincided with price corrections, but also presented entry opportunities for longer-term investors seeking favorable market conditions.

In a related post, fellow CryptoQuant contributor BorisVest explored activity among large Bitcoin holders. He noted that whale inflows to Binance have risen sharply, with the 30-day cumulative inflow metric jumping by $1.2 billion in a single day on July 25.

This sudden surge coincided with downward price pressure and a rejection at the $120,000 level, sending Bitcoin back toward the $115,000–$116,000 range.

BorisVest highlighted that although retail investors have also been transferring coins to exchanges, their activity remains relatively modest in comparison, suggesting that large holders are playing a more dominant role in current market moves.

The imbalance between retail and whale inflows is creating a fragile support structure, according to BorisVest. The analyst pointed out that if the current support range around $115,000 fails to hold, Bitcoin could decline toward the $110,000 level.

Conversely, a strong rebound from this area might set the stage for another push toward the $121,000 mark or even new record highs. The market’s direction in the near term is expected to hinge on how effectively buying demand can absorb the current wave of whale-driven selling.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView