AAVE Price Reclaims $320 As TVL Metric Shows Positive Divergence — What’s Next?

After hovering around the $300 mark at the start of this week, the Aave price appears to have finally broken out of its consolidatory pattern. On Friday, September 12, the DeFi token made a brief return to the $320 level on the back of a general market surge.

The strong momentum of the Aave price movement suggests that the altcoin’s return to $320 might not be a random occurrence. An interesting convergence of an optimistic technical outlook and positive on-chain data paints a picture of what is next for the AAVE token.

In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, CryptoOnchain shared an interesting on-chain insight into the journey of the Aave price from around $130 in late 2024 to above $340 in the year. According to the crypto analyst, Aave’s Market Cap to Total Value Locked (TVL) ratio concurrently dropped to a two-year low as price rose to the 2025 high.

The MC/TVL ratio, as the name suggests, is an on-chain metric that compares a token’s market capitalization and the total value locked on its underlying protocol. CryptoOnchain noted that this indicator typically surges in tandem with price, except when the TVL metric grows at a rate faster than the market capitalization.

However, the latest drop of the MC/TVL ratio to its lowest level in two years—as price grew—represents a positive divergence, which is likely driven by substantial capital inflows into Aave’s contracts. According to CryptoOnchain, this significant inflow of capital boosts the TVL without the market cap fully reflecting it.

The crypto analyst attributed this situation to relative undervaluation—provided that the TVL growth is sustainable and not due to short-term yield farming activities. Overall, this positive divergence could be a bullish catalyst for both the AAVE price and the protocol’s fundamentals.

In a separate analysis on social media platform X, crypto analyst Ali Martinez set a target of $335 for the AAVE price. This positive prediction is based on its recent breakout of a falling wedge on the four-hour chart.

The falling wedge, which is characterized by two converging downward trendlines, is often seen as a bullish formation. After falling into this pattern towards the end of August, the price of Aave has finally broken out of the falling wedge.

According to Martinez, the AAVE price could travel to as high as $335 in its next leg up. This move would represent an over 5% move from the current price point. As of this writing, the price of Aave stands at around $318.5, reflecting an almost 4% jump in the past 24 hours.