Hedera (HBAR) Price Eyes $0.30 Breakout as ETF Decision and Elliott Wave Signals Build

Hedera (HBAR) is gaining momentum as “ETF season” heats up and technical patterns align for a potential upward move.

After bouncing from a September low near $0.205, HBAR has formed constructive patterns, an Elliott Wave advance, a double bottom, and a 10-week descending wedge, that together suggest a bullish turn.

With a final decision on a proposed HBAR spot ETF expected in November, traders are wondering if a clear break above $0.23–$0.24 could lead to the $0.30 level.

Macro tailwinds are strengthening, with the SEC expected to make decisions on numerous crypto ETF applications in October–November. Analysts believe that current listing standards improve the chances of approval.

Hedera, which has been under review for a spot ETF since 2024, could benefit from an increase in approvals that would expand U.S. investor access.

Additionally, Hedera’s reputation in the enterprise sector, governed by reputable council members and involved in real-world finance initiatives like SWIFT panels and public-sector pilots, supports positive sentiment and keeps HBAR relevant as institutions seek scalable, low-cost settlement solutions.

On the daily chart, HBAR completed a double bottom at approximately $0.205 (on September 5 and 26), with a neckline around $0.255.

Price action has since contracted into a falling wedge lasting over 10 weeks, often a sign of upcoming breakouts, while analysts view the move as Wave 2 within an Elliott Wave cycle that started with a 140% surge from late June to late July.

A shift into Wave 3, typically the longest and most impulsive phase, would bring the year-to-date high of about $0.3065 into focus, with potential to challenge last November’s peak of around $0.40 if momentum broadens.

Market internals are also improving, with a rising Chaikin Money Flow indicating steady net inflows. A move above $0.242–$0.248 could trigger approximately $32 million in short liquidations, fueling any upside breakout.

The near-term structure remains tight. Traders need a clear close above $0.230–$0.242 to confirm a wedge breakout; reaching $0.248 could trigger forced short exits, boosting gains.

Breaking above $0.30 would confirm the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and support the Elliott Wave projection toward $0.3065, then $0.35–$0.40 as market breadth improves.

On the downside, $0.205 serves as the main invalidation level. A daily close below the double-bottom would diminish the bullish momentum and could lead to a drop towards $0.198. Until then, positive ETF headlines and strong flows suggest that the Upside bias in October remains intact.

Cover image from ChatGPT, HBARUSD chart on Tradingview