Toncoin Slumps 52% in 2025 – Is the Telegram-Linked Token Doomed or Primed for a Comeback?

Toncoin ($TON) bled 67% in three months. It fell from $7.20 to $2.34 as the Telegram-linked token became one of crypto’s worst Q1 performers.

A feeble 4.86% rebound last week barely dents its 52% yearly losses, leaving traders to brace for another plunge.

The steep decline, fueled by eroding confidence and wild swings, raises a brutal question: Is this a buying opportunity or a dead cat bounce?

One major trigger was the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov in August, which left investors in The Open Network ($TON) anxious about the platform’s future.

It is still unclear how much direct influence Durov wields over the blockchain, leading to doubts about whether the project can maintain its growth momentum. $TON’s price dropped over 25% during the fallout from this event.

More recently, on May 29, Toncoin suffered a 7% drop after Elon Musk refuted claims of a $300 million partnership between Telegram and his AI venture, xAI.

Durov had initially stated that Telegram would receive $300 million in cash and equity from xAI and retain 50% of the revenue generated from xAI subscriptions sold through Telegram.

But Musk swiftly dismissed the reports, posting on X, “No deal has been signed,” casting doubt on the partnership’s credibility.

True. Agreed in principle, but formalities are pending.

Compounding these challenges, the TON blockchain experienced a temporary outage on June 1, halting block production for roughly 40 minutes.

The development team reported the issue at 12:51 UTC and promptly restored network functionality.

Like other high-throughput chains such as Solana and Sui, $TON appears susceptible to brief downtime as validator logic becomes more complex and network activity scales.

Despite these setbacks, $TON continues to attract both institutional capital and retail enthusiasm.

Max Crown, co-founder of MoonPay and now CEO of the TON Foundation, has actively shared new initiatives intended to reduce user friction and expand crypto accessibility.

Telegram-based features, such as Telegram Gifts, have contributed to increased NFT engagement.

One example is the rise of Plush Pepe, a Telegram-native NFT project that grew from $1,110 to $2,728 (approximately $8,500) in under two weeks.

New ATH every day

Plush Pepe FP is 2728 TON ($8500)

My quote post make sense now (: https://t.co/RDz59R6ATg pic.twitter.com/cYJ1vQ3EDd

In addition, the TON ecosystem now supports Ethena’s stablecoins, $USDe and $tsUSDe, allowing Telegram users to earn up to 18% APY on crypto dollars.

Blockchain intelligence firm Arkham, which tracks over 2.1 billion labeled addresses, has also adopted TON-based mini-apps to increase its footprint within the Telegram ecosystem.

On the technical front, the $TON/$USDT daily chart indicates a clear shift in trend.

$TON has broken out of a descending channel (highlighted in yellow), indicating a potential end to its months-long downtrend.

The token is currently trading near $3.13, just above the confluence of key short-term moving averages (20, 50, 100 SMA), clustered between $3.11 and $3.23. This range is acting as near-term support.

The next key resistance lies between $4.23 and $4.26, aligning with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A breakout beyond this level could set the stage for a run toward the $5.63 target.

#TON/USDT DAILY BREAKOUT$TON has broken above the descending trendline with strong momentum — structure favors bulls!
Currently retesting the breakout zone — potential rally ahead!

Target 1: $3.964
Target 2: $4.648
Target 3: $5.166

Eyes on volume confirmation —… pic.twitter.com/jZWk4tRvAv

Conversely, a failure to sustain momentum may trigger a pullback to the support zone around $3.11.

Meanwhile, the RSI sits at 49.68, neutral, but tilting bullish, reinforced by multiple bullish divergence indicators. A push above the 50 mark would further confirm upward momentum.

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