In its latest Macro Report, investment research firm Bravos Research delves into factors influencing Bitcoin’s trajectory as it enters 2025, citing weakening stock market performance and record outflows from Bitcoin ETFs as significant headwinds.

Bitcoin May Track Stock Weakness

Bravos Research suggests Bitcoin’s price strength, despite being in a “parabolic stage,” could face a downturn if it aligns with the stock market’s underperformance.

“This is the opposite of September 2024’s setup, when stocks hit new highs while Bitcoin struggled. Back then, Bitcoin eventually caught up to stocks’ strength,” Bravos Research stated in its Dec. 31 report, titled “Is the 2025 Bitcoin Crash Starting?”

Bitcoin ETF investments soar, surpassing the $100 billion milestone. Source: Bravos Research

The report highlighted a potential correction in BTC prices, suggesting that Bitcoin might “catch down to stocks’ weakness.” An accompanying chart compared BTC/USD to the S&P 500, illustrating a notable divergence during December 2024.

“If Bitcoin corrects, we’d look to buy the dip around $80,000 for the next leg higher,” Bravos noted, aligning with recent market sentiment forecasting $80,000 as a critical support level.

ETF Outflows Add to Pressure

Bitcoin ETFs, which currently hold over 1.15 million BTC, have been accumulating approximately 3,000 BTC daily. However, Bravos Research cautioned that even a slight reduction in this buying momentum could pressure prices.

Bitcoin ETFs hold 1.15 million BTC and continue to grow, adding approximately 3,000 BTC daily. Source: Bravos Research

“Bitcoin ETFs could drive another 50% surge in 50 days at the current pace of accumulation,” Bravos calculated. “However, even a slight slowdown in ETF buying could trigger a decline.”

Recent outflows from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) further amplify concerns. While ETF buying remained strong through much of 2024, Bravos pointed to historical precedents, such as March 2024, when Bitcoin prices fell 30% despite continued ETF accumulation.

Bitcoin Price Trends and Technical Indicators

As of early 2025, Bitcoin trades below the $100,000 mark, retreating from its November 2024 all-time high of $97,938. The dip comes amidst a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, influencing broader risk-asset sentiment. Analysts are also closely watching Bitcoin’s correlation with macroeconomic indicators, including inflation data and interest rate decisions.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart. Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) via Brave New Coin

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s parabolic trajectory suggests the possibility of a sharp correction before resuming its upward momentum. Key support levels, including $80,000, are critical to maintaining investor confidence.

Market Sentiment Remains Divided

Market participants remain divided on Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. While some see the potential for further downside, others view any correction as a strategic buying opportunity.

“Bitcoin’s price action remains volatile but fundamentally strong,” said a crypto analyst from Farside Investors. “Long-term holders may find opportunities in these corrections.”

As Bitcoin enters 2025, its resilience amidst macroeconomic and market-specific challenges will likely determine whether it can sustain its position as a leading digital asset. With ETF performance, stock market trends, and regulatory developments shaping the landscape, traders and investors should prepare for a dynamic year ahead.