The firm predicts that Bitcoin’s value could rise significantly, but outcomes depend on factors such as the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the U.S. government’s stance on cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin Price Scenarios: Bear, Base, and Bull Cases

Source: X

Blockware outlines three potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s price trajectory in 2025:

Bear Case: Bitcoin could rise modestly to $150,000, representing a 58% increase from its current price of about $95,000. Such a scenario could be achieved if the Federal Reserve kept interest rates higher for longer and long-term holders started aggressively selling their Bitcoin. Additionally, failure by the Donald Trump administration to act on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan could see the expected bull run falter. Base Case: The more optimistic estimate puts Bitcoin at $225,000. This outcome assumes the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates as expected, the U.S. government establishes Bitcoin as a reserve asset through the SBR initiative, and corporate adoption of Bitcoin continues steadily. Bull Case: The most ambitious forecast is to reach $400,000, which is conditioned on a slew of positive developments. This means the Federal Reserve would have to turn ultra-dovish, speed up corporate adoption, including adding Bitcoin on their respective balance sheets by at least one of the tech giants, and the U.S. government expands its reserves to give Bitcoin an even greater seal as a reserve asset. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Corporate Adoption

The SBR initiative proposed by the Trump administration is central to these projections. Jack Mallers, CEO of Strike, anticipates an executive order to designate Bitcoin as a U.S. reserve asset could come early in Trump’s presidency.

However, not all experts are optimistic about the government’s role. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, argues that while discussions around a Bitcoin reserve policy may gain traction, the U.S. government is unlikely to purchase additional Bitcoin. Instead, it may rely on existing holdings for strategic reserves.

Corporate participation in Bitcoin adoption remains a significant determinant for its 2025 price. Blockware suggests that accelerated adoption, particularly by major firms like Microsoft or Tesla, could push Bitcoin’s value toward the upper end of the forecast.

Recent developments, however, cast doubt on this. Microsoft’s shareholders recently rejected a resolution to add Bitcoin to its balance sheets, signaling potential resistance among large corporations.

Macroeconomic Influences

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policies are expected to play a key role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. A dovish stance combined with reduced interest rates may increase investment in Bitcoin, while a hawkish approach might dampen the growth prospects.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart. Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) via Brave New Coin

Blockware’s projections frame the uncertainty and potential of Bitcoin’s future. From $150,000 all the way up to $400,000, the next two years will be pivotal in deciding the fate of the cryptocurrency in global finance. It is going to be a function of how the policies of governments interact with corporate and economic conditions that will dictate Bitcoin’s path in 2025.