Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election have surged, hitting a two-month high, according to leading prediction market Polymarket. As of the latest figures, Trump holds a 55.8% chance of victory, while Vice President Kamala Harris trails with 43.8%. These percentages reflect the sentiments of traders who have collectively wagered over $1.6 billion on the outcome of the November election. 

Source: Polymarket

Trump’s rise in the odds follows the announcement by President Joe Biden that he would not seek reelection, leaving Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee. Other prediction platforms, such as Kalshi and PredictIt, also show Trump leading. Kalshi, which recently gained permission to list U.S. election contracts, puts Trump at 52% compared to Harris’ 48%, while PredictIt shows a slimmer margin, with Trump at 53% and Harris at 52%.

The surge in Trump’s odds comes at a time when the cryptocurrency industry is keenly watching the election. Trump has promised to turn the U.S. into the “crypto capital of the world,” and some experts believe that regardless of who wins, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are poised for significant growth.

Crypto and Election Outlook

According to Dan Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings, the price of Bitcoin is expected to hit $100,000 soon, irrespective of the election results. Speaking at the Permissionless conference in Salt Lake City, Utah, Tapiero remarked, “I don’t think it really matters. Everything is going up now. The election will pass.” Tapiero believes Bitcoin is a proxy for the broader cryptocurrency market and expects other digital assets to follow Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.

Similarly, CK Zheng, Chief Investment Officer of ZX Squared Capital, also expressed optimism, saying that the upcoming election would benefit Bitcoin regardless of the winner. Zheng highlighted the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in April, which historically leads to strong fourth quarters, as a major driver of price increases. He added that neither Trump nor Harris has addressed rising U.S. debts and deficits, an issue that could play in Bitcoin’s favor post-election. “This will be very bullish for Bitcoin, especially post the U.S. election,” Zheng noted.

Trump’s Crypto Appeal vs. Harris’ New Tech Focus

Trump’s pro-crypto stance has captured the attention of many in the industry. He has vowed to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who has led aggressive enforcement actions against cryptocurrency companies. Gensler’s policies have been seen as stifling innovation, and Trump’s promise to remove him has been met with applause by many crypto enthusiasts.

However, Kamala Harris is not entirely silent on the issue. In recent weeks, she has included blockchain technology as one of several emerging technologies where she believes the U.S. should remain dominant. This shift has been seen as a response to the growing importance of crypto and digital assets in global markets.

Interestingly, SEC enforcement head Gurbir Grewal stepped down in early October, potentially signaling a pivot in the current administration’s approach to crypto regulation.

Mixed Reactions from Crypto Supporters

Despite Trump’s vocal support for cryptocurrencies, some in the crypto community remain divided. His controversial launch of a Trump-affiliated crypto project in September led some industry supporters to criticize him, stating that he had “lost their votes.”

Source: X

Nonetheless, crypto markets remain optimistic about the future. Financial experts, including Alex Kruger, founder of Asgard, believe that broader economic forces, such as rate cuts and increased liquidity, will drive asset prices higher, with Bitcoin standing to benefit the most. Kruger predicts that once uncertainty around the election clears, money will flow into riskier assets like crypto. “Liquidity is going to be flowing into the market,” Kruger said, adding that Bitcoin and other assets could see significant gains as investors shift from short-term investments to longer-term options.

Institutional Money on the Sidelines

Joe McCann, founder of crypto investment firm Asymmetric stated that institutional investors are ready to pour money into the markets regardless of the election outcome. “No matter who wins, the view is that the market’s going higher,” McCann said. He added that Trump’s pro-crypto stance could accelerate Bitcoin’s rise, but even a Harris victory would not slow Bitcoin’s long-term upward trajectory.

Crypto’s Political Gamble

Meanwhile, a recent Time article took a cautiously skeptical view of crypto’s political strategies in 2024. While the industry has poured massive amounts of money into campaigns and rallied grassroots supporters, it faces significant challenges in public perception and regulatory hurdles. The aggressive spending and polarized tactics could either lead to a breakthrough for crypto-friendly legislation or cause a political backlash that delays meaningful progress for years.

Cryptocurrency players are pouring significant amounts of money into political campaigns in an effort to influence U.S. elections. This includes donations to various candidates and PACs (Political Action Committees), particularly through Coinbase’s super PAC, *Fairshake*, which has raised over $200 million. Cryptocurrency donations now make up nearly half of all corporate political contributions in 2024, a huge amount relative to the industry’s public standing.

Despite this financial clout, the article notes that the crypto industry faces challenges in gaining mainstream public approval. Polls from Pew and Gallup don’t even list cryptocurrency as a top issue, and a Federal Reserve survey indicates that only 7% of Americans owned or used crypto in 2023. Furthermore, a large portion of Americans still harbor negative opinions about crypto, with 69% of voters in swing states holding unfavorable views. The industry is battling the fallout from major scandals, such as the collapse of FTX and the criminal charges against its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried.

The FTX collapse and Bankman-Fried’s criminal activities had profound reputational consequences for the entire crypto industry. The article highlights that while some industry insiders thought the scandal might serve as a catalyst for clear federal regulations, the opposite has happened. The SEC, under Gary Gensler, has increased its enforcement actions, suing crypto companies and trying to block initiatives like Bitcoin ETFs. This regulatory pressure has united crypto supporters in their opposition to Gensler’s approach.

The article discusses the crypto industry’s top legislative goal, the *FIT21* bill, which would shift oversight of most digital assets from the SEC to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The bill passed in the House but has yet to be voted on in the Senate. The article expresses skepticism about its passage, citing political infighting and reports suggesting that the crypto industry’s aggressive lobbying tactics could backfire. A researcher from TD Cowen wrote that crypto’s attempts to sway Senate races could anger key legislators and delay any real progress until 2026.

Crypto is not only pouring money into Republican candidates but also into some Democratic campaigns, making it a bipartisan effort. On the Republican side, Donald Trump has made the biggest splash, pledging to fire Gary Gensler on day one of his presidency and positioning himself as a champion of Bitcoin. His VP pick, J.D. Vance, has also embraced the crypto industry as a way to fight against what he calls “social justice mobs.”

However, the article notes that while Republicans have embraced crypto, supporting one party too heavily could alienate Democrats, who hold key positions on financial regulatory matters. There is also friction within the crypto world about the right approach. Some insiders worry that focusing too much on ousting Gensler may only bring temporary relief, while a new SEC chair could still be tough on crypto. The ultimate goal, for many, is bipartisan legislation that regulates crypto fairly, regardless of who is in power.

 

Impact of Lobbying and Grassroots Efforts

 Crypto lobbying has taken various forms. Apart from financial contributions, crypto companies are organizing rallies and mobilizing grassroots support through initiatives like Stand With Crypto, a campaign launched by Coinbase to generate public support for pro-crypto politicians. The article covers events like watch parties, where crypto enthusiasts gather, but notes that rallying grassroots support can be difficult. At one event, many participants admitted that while they supported crypto, they were less interested in politics, seeing the decentralized nature of crypto as an alternative to political systems.

Source: Stand With Crypto

Source: Stand With Crypto

The article criticizes some of the tactics used by pro-crypto PACs, describing them as opaque or counterproductive. For instance, *Fairshake* spent $10 million on attack ads against California Representative Katie Porter, even though she had voiced little public opinion on crypto. The campaign tactics confused her and others, suggesting that some industry insiders might be more focused on gaining influence and funding rather than supporting true crypto champions.

A key challenge is passing significant legislation on crypto. While the *FIT21* bill has had bipartisan support in the House, passing it through the Senate could prove difficult. The article notes that some Democratic politicians, like Nancy Pelosi, have quietly supported the bill, but its progress is far from guaranteed. Senate Democrats, especially figures like Sherrod Brown, may resist crypto-friendly legislation due to the industry’s controversial reputation.

While crypto’s political spending is unprecedented, it’s unclear if it will ultimately pay off. The SEC remains a significant adversary, and political divisions within both the industry and U.S. parties complicate the path forward. Crypto’s influence could grow, especially if candidates like Trump fully embrace it, but there is a risk that crypto’s aggressive spending could backfire, leading to further regulatory clampdowns or legislative stagnation.

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, both the political and financial worlds are closely watching its potential impact on markets. For the cryptocurrency industry, however, experts suggest that the election’s outcome may not significantly alter the bullish outlook for assets like Bitcoin. With liquidity expected to increase and institutional money waiting on the sidelines, many believe that Bitcoin and other digital assets are set for a strong post-election surge, regardless of whether Trump or Harris takes the White House.